Regional Economic Outlook (REO): Western Hemisphere - Managing Transitions and Risks, April 2016
Western Hemisphere, April 27, 2016
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- Published: April 27, 2016
- Series: Western Hemisphere
Overview and Key Messages
- The global economy is "still struggling," producing a "harsher world" for many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.
- The growth outlook is weaker in advanced and emerging economies alike; "the gradual slowdown and rebalancing of economic activity in China is likely to keep commodity prices lower for longer."
- Favorable external financial conditions over the "past several years" have become more volatile, and "risks of a sudden tightening are on the rise."
- Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean has been revised downward, compared with our "January update" and is likely to "contract for a second consecutive year in 2016."
- Growth outcomes vary substantially within the region: commodity exporters face large external drags; countries with negative growth are affected mainly by domestic imbalances and rigidities and, in some cases, temporary policy transitions away from earlier distortions.
- In parts of the region where "policy frameworks have been strengthened over the past two decades," adjustment is relatively smooth; growth stories differ between the south and north.
Global Context and Implications (Chapter 1 highlights)
- Global activity has slowed amid higher financial market volatility as the world economy undergoes key transitions.
- Advanced economies: a "modest recovery continues, but unevenly."
- United States: "An expanding U.S. economy, led by consumption and job creation, has enabled interest rate lift-off toward gradual monetary normalization."
- Diverging central bank influences imply changes in global financial conditions and "appreciation pressures on the U.S. dollar."
- Emerging markets: growth continues to slow, "led by China as it rebalances and by continued stress in several large economies in recession."
- Commodity markets: weak commodity prices, notably oil, where "a supply glut has led to appreciably lower prices since last year."
- Canada: likely to see "continued sluggish growth before gradually strengthening as it navigates lower oil prices."
- Policy priorities: "managing vulnerabilities and rebuilding resilience to transition risks while supporting near-term growth, and enhancing productivity and potential growth through crucial structural reforms."
Latin America and the Caribbean: Regional Outlook (Chapter 2 highlights)
- The region is expected to be in recession, with growth "negative for the second consecutive year in 2016," though most countries continue to grow modestly; contractions are concentrated in a few economies.
- Differential impact across subregions:
- South America: "heavily affected by the decline in commodity prices."
- Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: "benefiting from the U.S. recovery and, in most cases, lower oil prices."
- Domestic factors matter: "Countries with sound domestic fundamentals continue to adjust relatively smoothly, but domestic imbalances and rigidities have heavily amplified the effects of external shocks in others."
- Policy focus for transitioning to lower commodity prices: "preserving buffers and boosting long-term growth."
Corporate Vulnerabilities (Chapter 3 highlights)
- Firms in Latin America face tighter global financial market conditions amid lower potential growth and challenging domestic macro adjustments.
- The chapter quantifies company-specific, country-specific, and global factors driving nonfinancial corporate risk; "all three factors play a role, albeit to varying degrees and with different implications across countries."
- Key findings:
- Macroeconomic domestic factors, such as "the pace of currency depreciation and higher sovereign spreads, have contributed to an increase in corporate risk since 2011."
- External conditions — notably measures of global risk aversion ("Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, VIX") — "constitute a dominant driver of corporate risk."
- Weak firm fundamentals (high leverage, low profitability) are associated with elevated corporate risks.
- Policy implication: "solid macroeconomic policy frameworks must be complemented by appropriate monitoring of systemic risks in the corporate sector and, when needed, by policies that facilitate corporate balance sheet repair that will help limit financial spillovers from corporate woes in the coming years."
Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation (Chapter 4 highlights)
- Recent currency depreciations are expected to create inflation pressure across Latin America, "though more modest than in the past."
- Improvements in monetary frameworks "over the past two decades" have led to substantial and generalized declines in exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices.
- In countries with credible monetary policy frameworks, policymakers have room to allow relative prices to adjust via exchange rate depreciation without compromising inflation objectives, provided "medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored."
- Caution: "Greater vigilance is warranted in economies that show evidence of sizable second-round effects."
Infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean (Chapter 5 highlights)
- Inadequate infrastructure is a principal barrier to growth and development in LAC despite upgrades over the "past decade."
- The region's infrastructure network has improved and is broadly comparable with other emerging market economies, but quality often lags export rivals and requires catch-up relative to advanced economies.
- Drivers of past improvement:
- Increase in public investment, "facilitated by the commodity boom."
- Greenfield private sector investment where regulatory impediments were alleviated.
- Deepening domestic capital markets financing more private investment in local currency.
- Remaining challenges:
- For most LAC countries, "the efficiency of public investment remains below that achieved by advanced economies."
- Need to replicate "reasonably sound frameworks for public-private partnerships in some large economies" to crowd-in private participation.
- Policy focus areas: investment efficiency, public investment management, institutional and regulatory frameworks for public-private partnerships.
Cross-cutting Policy Recommendations and Takeaways
- Preserve macroeconomic buffers and rebuild resilience to manage transition risks associated with slower global growth, lower commodity prices, and volatile financial conditions.
- Support near-term growth while implementing reforms to "enhance productivity and potential growth through crucial structural reforms."
- Strengthen monetary frameworks and anchor medium-term inflation expectations to reduce exchange rate pass-through and allow flexible adjustments.
- Monitor corporate sector risks closely, given the dominant role of global risk aversion ("VIX") and domestic macro pressures since 2011; consider policies to facilitate corporate balance sheet repair when needed.
- Improve public investment efficiency and replicate robust public-private partnership frameworks to mobilize private finance for infrastructure.
Regional Economic Outlook (REO): Western Hemisphere - Managing Transitions and Risks, April 2016 — IMF landing page content
Content in this bundle
- Resumo Analítico
- Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook: Managing Transitions and Risks; April 2016
- Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook: Managing Transitions and Risks; April 2016
- Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook: Managing Transitions and Risks; April 2016
- Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook: Managing Transitions and Risks; April 2016
- Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook: Managing Transitions and Risks; April 2016
- Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook: Managing Transitions and Risks; April 2016
- Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook: Managing Transitions and Risks; April 2016
- Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook: Managing Transitions and Risks; April 2016
- Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook: Managing Transitions and Risks; April 2016
- Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook: Managing Transitions and Risks; April 2016
- Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook: Managing Transitions and Risks; April 2016
- Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook: Managing Transitions and Risks; April 2016
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