Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Watching Out for Overheating, May 2011 -- Table of Contents

Western Hemisphere, April 1, 2011

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Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Watching Out for Overheating, May 2011 -- Table of Contents

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Bibliographic details

• Published: April 1, 2011
• Series: Western Hemisphere

Theme and overview

• The theme: "Watching out for Overheating" (April 2011).
• Key regional risks identified:
  • Rising inflation.
  • Strong domestic demand resulting in widening current account deficits.
  • Strong credit and asset price growth.
• Global context:
  • A dual outlook for the global economy, in which growth in emerging economies continues to outstrip growth in advanced economies, affects policy challenges for emerging market economies in the region.
• Caribbean-specific concern:
  • Public debt is high; fiscal policy will need to be consolidating to ensure macro stability and set the stage for future growth.
• Social risk:
  • Rising global commodity prices, especially that of food, threaten social safety networks for the most vulnerable populations.

Contents: major analytical chapters and policy focus areas

• Preface
• Executive Summary

• 1. Global, U.S., and Canadian Outlook
  • 1.1. The Global Outlook—A Dual Speed Expansion Proceeds with Increasing Risks
  • Advanced Economies
  • Emerging Market Economies
  • 1.2. United States—Ongoing Recovery with Downside Risks
  • What Kinds of Policies Are Needed?
  • 1.3. Canada—Recovery Gathers Strength
  • 1.4. Implications for the Latin American and Caribbean Region

• 2. Outlook and Policy Issues for Latin America and the Caribbean
  • 2.1. Overview
  • 2.2. Policy Challenges
  • South America—Managing Double Tailwinds
  • South America—The Less Financially Integrated Commodity Exporters
  • Mexico and Central America—Rebuilding Policy Buffers
  • The Caribbean—Recovery Beginning Amid High Debt
  • 2.3. Dealing with the Oil and Food Price Shock
  • Impact of Global Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation
  • Monetary Policy in the Face of Commodity Price Shocks
  • Social Policies and Commodity Price Shocks: Protecting the Poor
  • 2.4. Credit Markets and Asset Prices—Are Bubbly Conditions Taking Hold?
  • Bank Credit Growth
  • Corporate Indebtedness
  • Equity Prices
  • Housing Prices
  • 2.5. Capital Inflows—Guarding Against the Reversal of Favorable Global Conditions
  • Annex 2.1. Estimating Inflation Pass-Throughs

• 3. Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: How Good a Defense Against Appreciation Winds?
  • 3.1. Introduction
  • 3.2. Key Trends
  • 3.3. Modalities of Intervention
  • 3.4. Searching for Effects of Intervention: New Evidence
  • An Econometric Panel Approach
  • Triggers for Intervention
  • Effects of Intervention
  • Effectiveness––Event Analysis of Regime Shifts
  • 3.5. Quasi-Fiscal Costs of FXI
  • 3.6. Takeaways and Policy Considerations
  • Annex 3.1. Foreign Exchange Intervention and International Reserves: Data Availability
  • Annex 3.2. Methodological Strategy for the Panel Approach
  • Annex 3.3. Confidence Intervals for the Synthetic Currency

• Data appendices and indicators
  • Western Hemisphere: Main Economic Indicators
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators

Boxes and focused analyses included

• 1.1. Long-Term Outlook for the U.S. Federal Government Finances
• 1.2. Household Deleveraging in the United States
• 1.3. Canada’s Financial System Resilience: What Can Others Learn?
• 2.1. Changing Export Patterns in Latin America and the Caribbean
• 2.2. An Update on Macroprudential Policies
• 2.3. Haiti: Economic Developments since the January 2010 Earthquake
• 2.4. Caribbean Offshore Financial Centers: Opportunities and Challenges
• 2.5. The Information Value of Core Inflation
• 2.6. Stock Market Developments in the Region: The Role of Commodities
• 3.1. Actual Intervention and Changes in Gross International Reserves
• 3.2. Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules in Practice: Selected Latin American Experiences
• 3.3. Instruments for Foreign Exchange Purchases
• 3.4. Channels of Transmission of Foreign Exchange Intervention to the Exchange Rate
• 3.5. Overview of Recent Empirical Studies on Foreign Exchange Intervention in Latin America

Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Watching Out for Overheating, May 2011 — Table of Contents

Content in this bundle

• Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Watching Out for Overheating - May 2011
  • Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Watching Out for Overheating - May 2011 (Markdown version)
  • Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Watching Out for Overheating - May 2011 (PDF)

References

• New IMF Report Warns of Overheating Risks in Latin America
• Western Hemisphere: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive
• Regional Economic Outlooks
• IMF Regional Reports
• World Economic Outlook Archives
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