Potential Output and High-Income Convergence in Fiji

Selected Issues Papers, June 23, 2026

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Potential Output and High-Income Convergence in Fiji

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Matteo Ghilardi, Sonam Tobgay
• Published: June 23, 2026
• Series: Selected Issues Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229052436.018

Summary findings

• Potential growth is estimated at around 3.4 percent over the medium term.
• Convergence to high-income status by 2050 is characterized as feasible under conditions of sustained and productive investment, particularly targeted at enhancing resilience to climate-related shocks.
• Capital accumulation and productivity are identified as the main drivers of potential growth.

Drivers and methodology

• Approach: production-function approach and growth accounting.
• Main contributors to potential output growth:
  • Capital accumulation.
  • Productivity improvements, including total factor productivity.
• Key subject areas covered: Human capital, Income, Labor, National accounts, Potential output, Production, Productivity, Total factor productivity.

Convergence scenario and conditions

• Target: high-income status by 2050.
• Preconditions for feasibility:
  • Sustained investment.
  • Productive allocation of investment, with emphasis on enhancing resilience to climate-related shocks.
• Implicit trade-offs and risks highlighted by the analysis:
  • Dependence on the quality and resilience orientation of investment to withstand natural disasters and climate risks.

Policy implications and recommendations

• Prioritize investment that is both sustained and productive.
• Target investments to enhance climate resilience to reduce setback risks from natural disasters.
• Strengthen factors that raise productivity, including policies that support total factor productivity growth and human capital development.

Key statistics and publication metadata

• Pages: 12
• Volume: 2026
• Issue: 053
• Series: Selected Issues Paper No. 2026/053
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229052436.018
• Stock No: SIPEA2026053
• ISBN: 9798229052436
• ISSN: 2958-7875
• Authors: Matteo Ghilardi, Sonam Tobgay
• Date: June 23, 2026

Potential Output and High-Income Convergence in Fiji, Selected Issues Papers 2026/053, Matteo Ghilardi and Sonam Tobgay, June 23, 2026.

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