Tonga: Technical Assistance Report-Macroeconomic Frameworks Technical Assistance (TA) on Developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT)

Technical Assistance Reports, November 26, 2025

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Tonga: Technical Assistance Report-Macroeconomic Frameworks Technical Assistance (TA) on Developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT)

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Bibliographic details

• Published: November 26, 2025
• Series: Technical Assistance Reports
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229031981.019

Project overview

• Multi-year Technical Assistance (TA) project spanning late-2021 to mid-2025.
• Objective: build institutional capacity at the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) for model-based policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting and integrate FPAS into monetary policy processes and external communications.
• Total missions: eleven missions, five in-person and six virtual.

Activities and timeline

• Project period: late-2021 through mid-2025.
• Missions conducted: eleven missions (five in-person; six virtual).
• Emphasis on: developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), training NRBT staff in model-based analysis, and integrating model outputs into forward-looking monetary policy formulation.

Key findings and outcomes

• NRBT staff made remarkable progress and built a strong skillset for providing analytical support to policymakers.
• Model-based work now plays an important role in NRBT internal discussions.
• FPAS outputs represent an important input in forward-looking monetary policy formulation.
• External communications currently require further streamlining to reflect FPAS-based analysis.

Recommendations

• Ensure FPAS work sustainability within NRBT institutional structures and processes.
• Further streamline external communications to effectively convey model-based forecasts and policy analysis.

Content in this bundle

• Preface — IMF Technical Report: Tonga TA on Developing FPAS at the NRBT
  • Preface — IMF Technical Report: Tonga TA on Developing FPAS at the NRBT (Markdown version)
  • Preface — IMF Technical Report: Tonga TA on Developing FPAS at the NRBT (PDF)