Tonga: Technical Assistance Report-Macroeconomic Frameworks Technical Assistance (TA) on Developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT)

November 26, 2025

Summary

This technical assistance (TA) report presents the outcomes of the multi-year National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) TA project, conducted between late-2021 and mid-2025 over a total of eleven missions, five in-person and six virtual. The project focused on building new institutional capacity for model-based policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting, along its integration into monetary policy processes and external communications. NRBT staff made remarkable progress and built a strong skillset for providing analytical support to policymakers. Model-based work plays an important role in the NRBT internal discussions and represents an important input in forward-looking monetary policy formulation. Recommendations relate to ensuring FPAS work sustainability and further streamlining external communications.

Subject: Econometric analysis, Economic forecasting, Exchange rates, Inflation. Econometric models, Time series analysis

Keywords: Central banks; Exchange rates; Forecasting; Inflation; Monetary policy; Monetary policy transmission; Output gap; Quarterly Projection Models; Time series analysis.

Pages:
20
Volume:
2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229031981.019
Issue:
099
Series:
Technical Assistance Report No. 2025/099
Stock No:
TAREA2025099
ISBN:
9798229031981
ISSN:
3005-4575

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