Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Macroeconomic Modeling in Support of Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU)
Technical Assistance Reports, February 11, 2026
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- Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Macroeconomic Modeling in Support of Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU)
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Bibliographic details
- Published: February 11, 2026
- Series: Technical Assistance Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229038058.019
Background and Context
- This Technical Assistance followed a request by the National Bank of Ukraine for a review of their existing Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) and Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS).
- The NBU had an established FPAS, which benefited from previous IMF TA.
- Model-based forecasting and policy analysis faced significant challenges and uncertainty due to the ongoing Russian invasion.
- There was a need for a more detailed monetary policy block to reflect the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework combined with exchange rate and capital flow management measures needed to maintain economic and price stability during the Russian invasion.
Objectives of the Technical Assistance
- Review the existing Quarterly Projection Model (QPM).
- Strengthen the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the NBU.
- Incorporate a more detailed monetary policy block aligned with the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework and exchange rate and capital flow management measures.
Key Findings and Emphases
- Existing FPAS benefited from prior IMF technical assistance but remained constrained by large uncertainty from the Russian invasion.
- The monetary policy block required enhancement to adequately represent:
- Inflation Targeting (IT) framework mechanics.
- Exchange rate management measures.
- Capital flow management measures.
- The strengthened modeling approach aims to support economic and price stability under conflict-related shocks.
Subject Areas and Keywords
- Subject: Econometric analysis, Economic classification, Economic forecasting, Inflation, Prices, Public financial management (PFM)
- Keywords: Economic classification, FPAS, Imf Institute for Capacity Development, Inflation, Macroeconomic forecasting, modeling team, monetary policy, MPC., Nbu team, Project team, TA team
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