The Bahamas: Technical Assistance Report - Technical Assistance Project on Debt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD)

Technical Assistance Reports, June 5, 2026

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The report documents a scoping mission to strengthen the authorities’ capacity to integrate climate-related natural disaster risks into macroeconomic analysis in The Bahamas.
The mission was conducted at the request of the Central Bank of The Bahamas.
The assessment covered existing analytical tools, institutional arrangements, and data practices, identifying gaps in incorporating disaster shocks and debt-investment-growth linkages into forecasting frameworks.
The report proposes a multi-stage capacity development program centered on operationalizing the DIGNAD model, including calibration, scenario design, and integration into existing frameworks.
The program aims to institutionalize disaster risk analysis, strengthen policy assessment, and support evidence-based macroeconomic management and resilience planning in a highly disaster-prone small island economy.

Gaps exist in incorporating disaster shocks into forecasting frameworks.
Linkages between debt, investment, and growth are not fully embedded in current macroeconomic and fiscal forecasting tools.
Institutional arrangements and data practices require strengthening to support routine disaster risk analysis.
Operational capacity to calibrate and run the DIGNAD model is limited and needs development for scenario design and policy integration.

Multi-stage program focused on:
- Calibration of the DIGNAD model to Bahamian data and context.
- Scenario design to capture climate-related natural disaster risks and debt-investment-growth interactions.
- Integration of DIGNAD outputs into existing macro-fiscal forecasting and policy assessment frameworks.
Objectives of the program:
- Institutionalize disaster risk analysis within national forecasting and planning processes.
- Strengthen policy assessment tools to account for disaster shocks and fiscal-debt implications.
- Support evidence-based macroeconomic management and resilience planning.

Strengthened capacity to analyze and forecast the macroeconomic impacts of natural disasters.
Enhanced ability to assess policy responses that account for debt-investment-growth trade-offs in a disaster-prone small island economy.
Improved institutionalization of disaster risk analysis to inform macro-fiscal frameworks and public financial management.

Subject: Economic forecasting; Economic sectors; Environment; Fiscal policy; Macro-fiscal framework; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Natural disasters; Public financial management (PFM); Tourism
Keywords: Debt-Investment-Growth; DIGNAD model; Global; Icd department; IMF; Imf mission; Institute for Capacity Development; Macro-fiscal framework; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Macroeconomic Frameworks; mission team; Natural Disasters; policy response; Technical Assistance; Tourism

The Bahamas: Technical Assistance Report - Technical Assistance Project on Debt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD), June 5, 2026.