A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Gross Financing Needs

Technical Notes and Manuals, January 24, 2025

Source details

Canonical URL

A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Gross Financing Needs

Other formats

• Markdown version
• Structured JSON version
• Bundle manifest

Bibliographic details

• Authors: Santiago Acosta Ormaechea, Leonardo Martinez, Jorge Restrepo
• Published: January 24, 2025
• Series: Technical Notes and Manuals
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400289446.005

Overview and Purpose

• Presents the analytical underpinnings and a manual for the Public Debt Dynamics Tool with Gross Financing Needs (DDT_GFN), an extension of the Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT).
• The DDT projects public debt as percent of GDP under a baseline and alternative scenarios.
• The DDT_GFN presents debt-to-GDP projections and the corresponding public gross financing needs (GFN)-to-GDP projections for all DDT scenarios.
• Includes fan charts for both public debt and GFN.
• Computes fiscal adjustment paths for a user defined GFN target and adjustment period.
• Developed by the IMF Institute for Capacity Development for capacity development work on macroeconomic frameworks for forecasting and policy analysis.

Key Features and Analytical Components

• Debt-to-GDP projections under baseline and alternative scenarios.
• Public gross financing needs (GFN)-to-GDP projections corresponding to each scenario.
• Fan charts for public debt and GFN to represent distributional uncertainty.
• Fiscal adjustment path computation given:
  • a user defined GFN target, and
  • a user defined adjustment period.
• Requires twelve often publicly available macrofiscal variables to perform analyses of public debt and GFN dynamics.

Use Cases and Intended Users

• Designed for IMF Institute for Capacity Development capacity building activities.
• Intended to support macroeconomic frameworks for forecasting and policy analysis, including stress testing of debt and financing needs and designing fiscal adjustment strategies.

Content in this bundle

• A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Gross Financing Needs; January 2025; TNM 2025/01
  • A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Gross Financing Needs; January 2025; TNM 2025/01 (Markdown version)
  • A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Gross Financing Needs; January 2025; TNM 2025/01 (PDF)