World Economic Outlook, October 2017: Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges
World Economic Outlook, October 2017
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- World Economic Outlook, October 2017: Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges
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Bibliographic details
- Published: October 10, 2017
Global outlook and headline projections
- Global growth projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.7 percent in 2018.
- Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom.
- Commodity exporters, especially of fuel, are particularly hard hit as their adjustment to a sharp stepdown in foreign earnings continues.
- Short-term risks are broadly balanced; medium-term risks are still tilted to the downside.
- The cyclical pickup is supported by notable pickups in investment, trade, and industrial production, coupled with stronger business and consumer confidence.
- After disappointing global growth over the past few years, the recent pickup provides an ideal window of opportunity for policymakers to undertake critical reforms to raise potential output and improve living standards more broadly.
Policy priorities and recommendations
- Use the welcome cyclical pickup in global activity as a window of opportunity to:
- Tackle key challenges to boost potential output.
- Ensure the benefits of growth are broadly shared.
- Build resilience against downside risks.
- Emphasize reforms that can be implemented while cyclical conditions are favorable to reduce medium-term downside risks and raise living standards.
Recent sectoral and regional developments
- Upward revisions in growth projections are broad based, including for the euro area, Japan, China, emerging Europe, and Russia.
- Downward revisions include the United States, the United Kingdom, and India.
- Early 2017 growth generally stronger than expected, with improvements concentrated in investment, trade, and industrial production.
Chapter findings — Chapter 2: Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies
- Nominal wage growth in most advanced economies remains markedly lower than it was before the Great Recession of 2008–09.
- The bulk of the wage slowdown can be explained by:
- Labor market slack,
- Inflation expectations,
- Trend productivity growth.
- Involuntary part-time employment may have helped support labor force participation and workplace engagement, but it also appears to have weakened wage growth, even in economies where measured slack appears low.
- Policy implications stress understanding labor market composition (involuntary part-time, temporary contracts, hours per worker) and addressing underlying drivers to support stronger wage dynamics.
Chapter findings — Chapter 3: The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity
- Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace over the past 40 years.
- Significant further warming could occur, depending on our ability to restrain greenhouse gas emissions.
- Increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with relatively hot climates, such as most low-income countries.
- In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output in both the short and medium term.
- Sound domestic policies and development alongside investment in adaptation strategies could help to some extent.
- Given constraints faced by low-income countries, the international community must play a key role in supporting these countries’ efforts to cope with climate change.
Additional analytical emphases and tools in the report
- Chapter 1 provides:
- Recent developments and prospects, the forecast, risks, and policy priorities.
- Scenario Box 1: Impact of Recommended Policies in the Group of Twenty Economies.
- Chapter 2 includes:
- Wage Determination––A Primer, drivers of recent wage dynamics, boxes and annexes on labor market dynamics by skill level, firm-level evidence, and empirical methodologies.
- Chapter 3 includes:
- Temperature and Precipitation historical patterns and projections, macroeconomic impact analysis, coping strategies, model-based long-term effects, and boxes on tropical cyclones and policy roles.
- The report contains comprehensive figures and tables covering global activity indicators, fixed investment and trade, commodity prices, global inflation, monetary and financial conditions, exchange rates, capital flows, fiscal indicators, current account balances, geopolitical risk, and long-term projections.
Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2017: Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges
Content in this bundle
- C2 (PDF)
- C3 (PDF)
- C4 (PDF)
- Fig11csv (CSV)
- fig1_1
- Figure 1.10. Revisions to 2017 Growth and 2016 Output Gaps
- fig1_10 (PDF)
- Fig111csv (CSV)
- fig1_11 (PDF)
- Fig112csv (CSV)
- fig1_12 (PDF)
- Dataset: fig113csv
- fig1_13 (PDF)
- Fig114csv (CSV)
- fig1_14 (PDF)
- Fig115csv (CSV)
- fig1_15 (PDF)
- Fig116csv (CSV)
- fig1_16 (PDF)
- Fig117csv (CSV)
- fig1_17 (PDF)
- Fig118csv (CSV)
- fig1_18 (PDF)
- Fig119csv (CSV)
- fig1_19 (PDF)
- Fig12csv (CSV)
- fig1_2 (PDF)
- Figure 1.20. Advanced Economy Output Gaps, 2017
- fig1_20
- Figure 1.21. Emerging Market and Developing Economy Output Gaps, 2017
- fig1_21
- Figure 1.22. Per Capita Real GDP Growth across Low-Income Developing Countries
- fig1_22
- Dataset overview
- fig1_s_1
- Figure 1.1.1. Population Shares by Age Group and Gender
- Fig1_1_1
- Figure 1.1.2. Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group and Gender
- fig1_1_2
- Figure 1.1.3. Decomposition of Change in Labor Force Participation Rate, 2017�16
- fig1_1_3
- Figure 1.1.4. Changes in Labor Force Participation, Select Advanced Economies, 2007�16
- fig1_1_4
- Fig115csv
- fig1_1_5
- Figure 1.1.6. Convergence in Female Labor Force Participation Rates
- fig1_1_6
- Figure 1.3. Commodity Prices
- fig1_3
- Figure 1.2.1. Capital Flows to Emerging Market and Developing Economies
- fig1_2_1
- Figure 1.2.2. China: Reserves and Capital Flows
- fig1_2_2
- Figure 1.2.3. Latest Capital Flows Trends and Prospects
- fig1_2_3
- Figure 1.3.1. Per Capita Real GDP Growth across Country Groups
- fig1_3_1
- Fig132csv
- fig1_3_2
- Fig133csv
- fig1_3_3
- Fig134csv
- fig1_3_4
- Fig135csv
- fig1_3_5
- Figure 1.3.6. Distribution of EMDE Population by per Capita Real GDP Growth Rate
- fig1_3_6
- Figure 1.3.7. Projected per Capita Real GDP Growth Rates and 2011 Real Income Levels, AEs and EMDEs
- fig1_3_7
- Fig14csv
- fig1_4
- Figure 1.4.1. Commodity Prices
- fig1_4_1
- Figure 1.4.2. Exchange Rate Regimes of Commodity-Exporting Emerging Market and Developing Economies
- fig1_4_2
- Figure 1.4.3. Commodity Terms of Trade
- fig1_4_3
- Figure 1.4.4. Evolution of Exchange Rates
- fig1_4_4
- Figure 1.4.5. Net Export Adjustment, 2013–16
- fig1_4_5
- Dataset overview: Figure 1.4.6. Fiscal Indicators
- fig1_4_6
- Figure 1.4.7. Change in per Capita GDP Growth and Inflation in Fuel Exporters, Conditional on CToT
- fig1_4_7
- Figure 1.5.1. Net Remittances as a Share of Output, 2015
- fig1_5_1
- Fig152csv
- fig1_5_2
- Figure 1.5.3. Smoothing Effects of Remittances
- fig1_5_3
- Figure 1.5. Advanced Economies: Monetary and Financial Market Conditions
- fig1_5
- Figure 1.5.4. Contribution of Remittances to Consumption Risk Sharing
- fig1_5_4
- Figure 1.SF.1. Commodity Market Developments
- fig1_sf_1
- Figure 1.6. Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes, November 2016�September 2017
- fig1_6
- Figure 1.7. Emerging Market Economies: Equity Markets and Credit
- fig1_7
- Figure 1.8. Emerging Market Economies: Interest Rates
- fig1_8
- Figure 1.9. Emerging Market Economies: Capital Flows
- fig1_9
- Figure 2.1. Distribution of Labor Market Indicators
- fig2_1
- Fig210csv
- fig2_10
- Fig211csv
- fig2_11
- Figure 2.12. Decomposition of Wage Dynamics, 2000�16
- fig2_12
- Figure 2.13. Year Fixed Effects and Common Drivers, 2000–16
- fig2_13
- Figure 2.14. Changes in Growth Expectations and Labor Market Institutions
- fig2_14
- Figure 2.15. Long-Term Drivers of Labor Market Dynamics
- fig2_15
- Fig216csv
- fig2_16
- Figure 2.1.1. Evolution of Skill Premiums in the United States
- fig2_1_1
- Figure 2.1.2. Skill Premiums and Changes in Skill Premiums in European Economies
- fig2_1_2
- Figure 2.1.3. Nominal Wage Growth by Sector and Skill Group
- fig2_1_3
- Fig22csv
- fig2_2
- Figure 2.1.4. Employment Shares by Skill
- fig2_1_4
- Figure 2.1.5. Employment Shares by Skill and Changes in Hours per Worker
- fig2_1_5
- Figure 2.2.1. Changes in Employment Shares
- fig2_2_1
- Figure 2.2.2. Changes in Employment Shares, 2007�14
- fig2_2_2
- Figure 2.2.3. Wage Cuts and Freezes, 2014
- fig2_2_3
- Fig231csv
- fig2_3_1
- Figure 2.3.2. Wage and Employment Growth by Debt Maturity in 2008
- fig2_3_2
- Annex Figure 2.2.1. Distribution of Real Compensation Growth Measures
- fig2_annex2_1
- Annex Figure 2.2.2. Growth of Real Compensation per Hour and Unemployment Rates
- fig2_annex2_2
- Annnex Figure 2.2.3. Factors Associated with Nominal Wage Growth
- fig2_annex2_3
- Figure 2.3. Job Attributes: Involuntary Part-Time Employment
- fig2_3
- Annex Figure 2.2.4. Effects of Involuntary Part-Time Employment on Compensation and Wages, 2000�16
- fig2_annex2_4
- Fig2annex25csv
- fig2_annex2_5
- Annex Figure 2.3.1. Decomposition of Wage Dynamics, 2000–16
- fig2_annex3_1
- Annex Figure 2.3.2. Decomposition of Sectoral Wage Dynamics, 2000–15
- fig2_annex3_2
- Fig2annex33csv
- fig2_annex3_3
- Dataset: Figure 2.4. Job Attributes: Temporary Contracts
- fig2_4
- Figure 2.5. Job Attributes: Hours per Worker
- fig2_5
- Fig26csv
- fig2_6
- Fig27csv
- fig2_7
- Dataset: fig28csv — Figure 2.8. Job Attributes and Changes in Sectoral Employment Shares, 2008–16
- fig2_8
- Fig29csv
- fig2_9
- Figure 3.1. Average Global Temperature
- fig3_1
- Fig310csv
- fig3_10
- Fig311csv
- fig3_11
- fig3_12
- Figure 3.13. The Role of Policy Buffers
- fig3_13
- Figure 3.14. The Role of Structural Policies and Institutions
- fig3_14
- Figure 3.15. The Role of Development: Evidence from Subnational Data
- fig3_15
- Fig316csv
- fig3_16
- Fig317csv
- fig3_17
- Figure 3.18. Vulnerability to Temperature Increase and Adaptation Prospects
- fig3_18
- Figure 3.1.1. Effect of Tropical Cyclone Exposure on Real GDP per Capita
- fig3_1_1
- Figure 3.2. Increase in Average Global Temperature and Contributions of Key Factors
- fig3_2
- Fig312csv
- fig3_1_2
- Fig321csv
- fig3_2_1
- Figure 3.4.1. Insurance Penetration: Non-Life Insurance Premium
- fig3_4_1
- Figure 3.4.2. Catastrophe Bond Market
- fig3_4_2
- Figure 3.4.3. Temperature Shocks and Stock Price Predictability: Food and Beverages Sector
- fig3_4_3
- Figure 3.6.1. Effectiveness of Mitigation Policies in China
- fig3_6_1
- Dataset overview: fig3annex31csv
- fig3_annex3_1
- fig3_annex6_1
- Figure 3.3. Temperature and Precipitation across Broad Country Groups
- fig3_3
- Figure 3.4. Annual CO2 Emissions across Broad Country Groups
- fig3_4
- fig3_5
- Figure 3.6. Natural Disasters: Historical and Projected Monthly Probability of Occurrence
- fig3_6_corrected
- Figure 3.7. Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output
- fig3_7
- Figure 3.8. Effect of Temperature Increase on Real per Capita Output across the Globe
- fig3_8
- Fig39csv
- fig3_9
- Figure 4.1. Output Gap in Selected Countries
- 106736 Figure 4.01
- Figure 4.10. Impact of Fiscal Shocks on Global GDP Based on Various Instruments
- 106736 Figure 4.10
- Fig411csv
- 106736 Figure 4.11
- Fig412csv
- 106736 Figure 4.12
- Figure 4.13. Dynamic Responses to a US Government Spending Shock
- 106736 Figure 4.13
- Figure 4.14. Spillovers from US Spending Shock with and without a US Term-Premium Increase
- 106736 Figure 4.14
- Fig415csv
- 106736 Figure 4.15
- Figure 4.16. Spillovers from Increase in Government Investment in Five Major Economies
- 106736 Figure 4.16
- Fig411csv
- 106736 Figure 4.1.1
- Fig4annex31csv
- 106736 Annex Figure 4.3.1
- Fig4annex32csv
- 106736 Annex Figure 4.3.2
- 106736 Figure 4.02
- Fig4annex33csv
- 106736 Annex Figure 4.3.3
- Figure 4.3. Tracking Tax Shocks in the United States
- 106736 Figure 4.03
- Figure 4.4. Dynamic Responses of Recipient Countries� Output to Fiscal Shocks
- 106736 Figure 4.04
- Figure 4.5. Spillovers of Fiscal Shocks on Recipient Countries� Output
- 106736 Figure 4.05
- Figure 4.6. Dynamic Responses of Components of Recipient Countries� Output to a Fiscal Shock
- 106736 Figure 4.06
- Figure 4.7. Spillovers under Various Economic and Policy Conditions
- 106736 Figure 4.07
- Fig48csv
- 106736 Figure 4.08
- Fig49csv
- 106736 Figure 4.09
- C1
- Executive Summary
- Foreword
- Assumptions and Conventions
- Further Information and Data
- Preface
- statapp
- tblparta
- Tblpartb (PDF)
- Full Report