World Economic Outlook, October 2018: Challenges to Steady Growth

World Economic Outlook, October 9, 2018

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World Economic Outlook, October 2018: Challenges to Steady Growth

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Bibliographic details

• Published: October 9, 2018
• Series: World Economic Outlook
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484376799.081

Overview

• Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level.
• Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April.
• The pace of growth is less vigorous than projected in April and has become less balanced.
• Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded.

Key findings and drivers of the revision

• Downward revision reflects:
  • surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies;
  • negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September;
  • a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors;
  • tighter financial conditions;
  • geopolitical tensions;
  • higher oil import bills.
• Several downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 WEO—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized.
• Potential for upside surprises has receded because of:
  • tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world;
  • higher trade costs;
  • slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past;
  • waning growth momentum.

Balance of risks

• The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside.
• Elevated policy uncertainty is a key contextual factor increasing downside risk.

Subjects and keywords covered

• Subjects: Banking crises, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial crises, Financial markets, Inflation, National accounts, Non-renewable resources, Prices, Robotics, Tariffs, Taxes, Technology
• Keywords: advanced economy, Asia and Pacific, Banking crises, banking crisis, Caribbean, core inflation, crisis trend, debtor economy, Emerging and frontier financial markets, emerging market, energy demand, Global, headline inflation, Inflation, inflation expectation, Middle East, North Africa, output loss, Robotics, Sub-Saharan Africa, Tariffs, WEO

International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook, October 2018: Challenges to Steady Growth, October 9, 2018.

References

• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
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• Banking crises
• Emerging and frontier financial markets
• Financial crises
• Financial markets
• Inflation
• National accounts
• Non-renewable resources
• Prices
• Robotics
• Tariffs
• Taxes
• Technology
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