World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown

World Economic Outlook, April 14, 2020

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World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown

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Bibliographic details

• Published: April 14, 2020
• Series: World Economic Outlook
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513539744.081

Overview

• The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity.
• Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically.
• Internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.

Projections and Scenarios

• Baseline projection for 2020: the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis.
• Baseline scenario assumptions: the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound.
• Baseline projection for 2021: the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support.
• Risk assessment: the risks for even more severe outcomes are substantial.

Policy Findings and Recommendations

• Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes; the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health.
• Domestic policy needs:
  • Substantial targeted fiscal measures to support affected households and businesses.
  • Monetary policy measures to stabilize markets and support economic activity.
  • Financial market measures and prudential actions to ensure stability in affected sectors.
• International policy needs:
  • Strong multilateral cooperation to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks.
  • Channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.

Content in this bundle

• Preface
  • Preface (Markdown version)
  • Preface (PDF)

References

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