World Economic Outlook Database October 2001

World Economic Outlook

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World Economic Outlook Database October 2001

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Purpose and production process

• The World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database is created during the biannual WEO exercise, which begins in January and June and results in the WEO publication released in May and October.
• Selected series available in the WEO publication are published electronically at the time of the release of the Advance Copy of the WEO publication; figures may be revised to maintain consistency with the published World Economic Outlook, which remains the document of record.
• The WEO exercise is coordinated by the World Economic Studies Division in the Research Department. Projections and analysis are produced through interdepartmental review drawing on IMF staff consultations with member countries.
• WEO projections are prepared by country desk economists using internationally consistent assumptions about world economic activity, exchange rates, and international financial and commodity market conditions.
• For approximately 50 of the largest economies, referred to as Group A countries and which account for 90 percent of world output, projections are updated for each WEO exercise.

Data coverage and main series available

• Annual series provided from 1970 for world aggregates include:
  • Gross domestic product (values at market exchange rates and purchasing power parity [PPP] exchange rates)
  • World trade volume of goods and services (annual percent change)
  • World exports of goods and services (billions of U.S. dollars)
  • World imports of goods and services (billions of U.S. dollars)
• Data tables available in CSV format for the WEO Database October 2001 include (select listing as provided):
  • Real Gross Domestic Product (annual percent change): All countries; Advanced economies; Developing and transition countries; Regional group aggregates
  • Real Gross Domestic Product, Constant Prices (billions of local currency units)
  • Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices (billions of local currency units)
  • Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices (billions of U.S. dollars)
  • Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, Constant Prices (local currency per person)
  • Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices (local currency per person)
  • Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices (U.S. dollars per person)
  • Inflation (annual percent change)
  • General Government Fiscal Balances (percent of GDP)
  • Output Gaps (percent of potential GDP)
  • General Government Structural Balances (percent of potential GDP)
  • Net Capital Flows (billions of US dollars)
  • Developing and transition country groups CSV; Regional aggregates and other subgroup files

Data and file conventions

• Domestic economy series are expressed in billions of national currency units.
• External accounts series are expressed in billions of U.S. dollars.
• Indexes are generally based on 1995.
• Dates are expressed as the four digit year followed by "A1" to designate the annual frequency.
• WEO group aggregate data presentation:
  • Domestic economy series are in index form; the focus is on percentage change.
  • External account series are in billions of U.S. dollars.
• Null field values are represented by the phrase "n.a."
• Data tables are provided in Comma Delimited, CSV text file format; recommended viewing and import instructions are provided for spreadsheet, database, ASCII text-editing, and word-processing applications.
• Key CSV import options listed:
  • Data Type: Comma Delimited
  • File Origin: Windows ANSI
  • Text Qualifier: {"}
  • Field Delimiter: {,}
  • First Row: Field Names

Definitions, measurement notes, and special cases

• Real GDP (constant prices) is expressed in billions of national currency units; the base year is country-specific; the last available year matches the WEO statistical tables.
• GDP in U.S. dollars is based on GDP in national currency and exchange rate projections provided by country desk economists for developing and transition countries; exchange rates for advanced economies are set as part of WEO assumptions.
• Per capita GDP series are derived by dividing GDP (constant or current) by total population; the last available year matches WEO statistical tables.
• Shares of aggregate GDP based on PPP valuation are expressed as percent of the world total and are used solely to generate WEO country group composites; the IMF is not a primary source for PPP data.
• Inflation series are annual percentage change averages for the year, not end-of-period data.
• Annual percentages of real GDP are year-on-year changes.
• Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.
• For many developing countries and countries in transition, recent-year figures are IMF staff estimates or may refer to fiscal-year data; for some transition countries, data refer to real net material product (NMP) or estimates based on NMP.

Output gaps, structural balances, and fiscal adjustments

• Output gaps: actual GDP less potential GDP as a percent of potential GDP.
  • Estimates of output gaps are subject to a significant margin of uncertainty; methodological discussion referenced to IMF staff studies.
• Structural budget position: actual budget deficit (or surplus) less effects of cyclical deviations of output from potential output.
  • Structural balance indicators should be interpreted as broad orders of magnitude given uncertainty in cyclical gaps and elasticities; changes in structural balances are not necessarily attributable to policy changes.
  • Beyond the horizon of specific consolidation programs, structural deficit is assumed unchanged.

Fiscal and accounting special items (examples retained exactly)

• Data include one-off receipts from the sale of mobile telephone licenses equivalent to:
  • 2.5 percent of GDP in 2000 for Germany
  • 0.6 percent of GDP in 2001 for France
  • 1.2 percent of GDP in 2000 for Italy
  • 2.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for the United Kingdom
  • 0.2 percent of GDP in 2001 for Belgium
  • 0.7 percent of GDP in 2000 for The Netherlands
• Country-specific notes (examples retained exactly):
  • Australia: data exclude net advances (primarily privatization receipts and net policy-related lending); data exclude commonwealth government privatization receipts for fiscal balance measures.
  • France: fiscal data are adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund; fiscal aggregates exclude mobile telephone license receipts.
  • Korea: fiscal data include social security transactions (operations of the public pension plan).
  • New Zealand: data from 1992 onward are on an accrual basis and are not strictly comparable with previous cash-based data; data exclude privatization proceeds in fiscal balance measures.
  • United Kingdom: fiscal data exclude asset sales; fiscal aggregates exclude mobile telephone license receipts.
  • Germany: estimate of the fiscal impulse for 1995 is affected by the federal government assumption of Treuhandanstalt debt and other agencies; at public sector level there would be an estimated withdrawal of fiscal impulse amounting to just over 1 percent of GDP; data exclude mobile telephone license receipts.
  • Italy: fiscal aggregates exclude mobile telephone license receipts.
  • Norway: fiscal aggregates exclude oil.
  • European Union and euro area aggregates exclude Luxembourg.

Net capital flows and external debt notes

• Net private capital flows comprise net direct investment, net portfolio investment, and other long- and short-term net investment flows including official and private borrowing.
• Composition of "Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows" differs from standard WEO groups: "Total Emerging Markets" includes developing countries, countries in transition, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China, and Israel.
• The series in the data file are organized as they appear in the statistical table:
  • Private capital flows, net
  • Private direct investment, net
  • Private portfolio investment, net
  • Other private capital flows, net
  • Official flows, net
  • Change in reserves
  • Memorandum: Current account
• Change in reserves: a minus sign indicates an increase.
• The difference between the current account and the sum of net private capital flows, net official flows, and change in reserves is the capital account and errors and omissions.
• Group definitions retained exactly when noted:
  • "Developing Asia" includes Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China.
  • "Crisis countries" includes Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand.
  • "Middle East, Malta, and Turkey" includes Israel.
• External debt data:
  • Expressed in billions of US dollars and reflect total external debt at year end for developing and transition countries only.
  • External debt data are not collected for advanced economies.
  • Total debt includes all short- and long-term debt.
  • Debt-service payments refer to actual payments of interest on total debt plus actual amortization payments on long-term debt; projections incorporate the impact of exceptional financing items.

Group composition changes and historical notes

• Changes to the database (selected):
  • October 2001: No changes were introduced.
  • May 2001:
  • Greece is included in the euro area.
  • Cyprus is included in Advanced Economies; previously included in Middle East and Europe under Developing Countries.
  • Asia is replaced by the title Developing Asia (no change in composition).
  • Middle East and Europe is replaced by the title Middle East, Malta, and Turkey; Cyprus is no longer included in the group.
  • Two new subgroups comprise Countries in Transition: Commonwealth of Independent States and Mongolia replaces Trancaucasus and central Asia; composition of Central and Eastern Europe changed (the group no longer includes Moldova and Ukraine).
• World aggregates and group compositions are constructed using growth-rate aggregation in many cases; often no level data exist for group aggregates because growth rates are aggregated.

Availability, access, and contact

• The site provides the most frequently requested information from the WEO database consistent with the WEO publication; not all WEO publication data are disseminated through the site.
• End dates of country-specific series correspond to those appearing in the WEO publication.
• Over time, additional information may be released; customized requests for WEO data will no longer be filled.
• Queries about the WEO database should be sent to the e-mail address weo@imf.org.

Content in this bundle

• Capflow (CSV)
• D Pc A (CSV)
• D Pc B (CSV)
• D Pc C (CSV)
• Debt (CSV)
• Gdp Pc A (CSV)
• Gdp Pc B (CSV)
• Gdp Pc C (CSV)
• Ggb (CSV)
• Ggsb (CSV)
• Growth A (CSV)
• Growth B (CSV)
• Growth C (CSV)
• Growth D (CSV)
• Ngap (CSV)
• Ngdp A (CSV)
• Ngdp B (CSV)
• Ngdp C (CSV)
• Ngdp R A (CSV)
• Ngdp R B (CSV)
• Ngdp R C (CSV)
• Ngdpd A (CSV)
• Ngdpd B (CSV)
• Ngdpd C (CSV)
• Pcpi A (CSV)
• Pcpi B (CSV)
• Pcpi C (CSV)
• Ppp A (CSV)
• Ppp B (CSV)
• Ppp C (CSV)
• R Pc A (CSV)
• R Pc B (CSV)
• R Pc C (CSV)
• W1 (CSV)

References

• World Economic Outlook, October 2001
• World Economic Outlook Databases
• April 2000 World Economic Outlookfor a summary of the revised PPP-based weights, and Annex IV of the May 1993