World Economic Outlook Database for April 2006
World Economic Outlook
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- World Economic Outlook Database for April 2006
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About the WEO database and exercise
- The World Economic Outlook (WEO) database is created during each semiannual WEO exercise; these exercises begin in January and June and culminate in the publication of the World Economic Outlook in April and September, respectively.
- Selected series from the publication are released on the day of the WEO press conference.
- The WEO exercise is coordinated by the World Economic Studies Division in the Research Department.
- Projections and analyses in the World Economic Outlook are an integral element of the IMF’s ongoing surveillance of economic developments and policies in member countries and of the global economic system.
- WEO projections are prepared by IMF country economists on the basis of internationally consistent assumptions about world economic activity, exchange rates, and conditions in international financial and commodity markets.
- Advanced economies and the largest developing countries, which account for 90 percent of world output, provide a full set of projections for each WEO exercise; most smaller countries provide updates of key variables for each WEO exercise and a full set of projections at the time of the IMF's regular Article IV consultations, unless world developments necessitate more frequent updates.
Key updates and country/currency adjustments (April 2006 and earlier)
- April 2006:
- The country composition of the fuel-exporting group has been revised to reflect the periodic update of the classification criteria.
- The purchasing-power-parity (PPP) weights have been updated to reflect the most up-to-date PPP conversion factor provided by the World Bank.
- The primary commodity indices are included in the WEO database.
- Romania redenominated its currency by transforming 10,000 units of old Lei into one unit of new Leu.
- Turkey revalued its currency by dropping six zeros from the old Lira; the new Turkish Lira (Yeni Türk Lirasi) became the new currency unit.
- September 2005:
- Country group composites for Savings and Investment are calculated as the sum of the U.S. dollar values for the relevant individual countries; this differs from April 2005 and earlier WEOs where composites were weighted by GDP valued at PPPs as a share of total world GDP.
- The Malagasy franc replaced the ariary as Madagascar’s currency on January 1, 2005; one Malagasy franc was valued at 0.2 ariarys.
- April 2005:
- Data for Afghanistan are included.
- The base year for time series expressed in index form has been re-indexed to 2000.
- El Salvador currency has been changed to dollar.
- London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) series are included for euro area, Japan and the United States.
- The PPP weights have been updated to reflect the most up-to-date PPP conversion factor provided by the World Bank.
- Earlier changes (selection):
- May 2004: European Union added 10 new member nations on May 1, 2004 (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia).
- April 2004: World classification revised from three groups to two: “advanced economies” and “other emerging market and developing countries”; Turkey and Malta moved to Central and Eastern Europe; Timor-Leste, Dem. Rep. of added; current account balance projections included for all countries; PPP weights updated with benchmark year 2000.
- September 2003 and earlier: a range of country inclusions, group name changes, and data coverage expansions noted.
Data conventions and formats
- Domestic economy series are expressed in billions of national currency units.
- External accounts series are expressed in billions of U.S. dollars.
- Missing data: indicated by "N/A".
- Unavailable data: indicated by a blank.
- Series expressed in index form are based on 2000=100 except for the GDP deflator, which is expressed in the base year of each country's national accounts.
- The end dates of country-specific series correspond to those appearing in the WEO publication.
- Not all data appearing in the World Economic Outlook are disseminated through the database; additional data may be released over time.
Data coverage and series definitions (selected major series)
- Gross Domestic Product, Constant Prices (national currency and annual percent change)
- Real GDP: expressed in billions of national currency units; the base year is country-specific. Annual percentages are year-on-year changes.
- Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only where noted.
- For developing countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates; some countries report fiscal-year data.
- For several central and eastern European and CIS countries, data refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP.
- Group aggregates are available in growth rate form only because aggregates are created from percent changes rather than levels.
- Countries using chain-weighted methodology: Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Canada, Czech Republic, euro area, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Historical cutoffs for unrevised national accounts data are specified by country.
- Cameroon: percent changes in 2002 calculated over 18 months reflecting fiscal year change.
- Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices
- National currency: expressed in billions of national currency units.
- U.S. dollars: based on GDP in national currency and the exchange rate projections provided by country economists for other emerging market and developing countries; exchange rates for advanced economies are established in the WEO assumptions.
- Per Capita GDP (constant and current prices; national currency and U.S. dollars)
- Derived by dividing GDP (constant or current) by total population; U.S. dollar per capita series convert national currency GDP to U.S. dollars then divide by population.
- GDP Deflator
- Derived by dividing current price GDP by constant price GDP; index expressed in the base year of each country's national accounts.
- Output Gap
- Ratio to potential GDP: actual GDP less potential GDP as a percent of potential GDP; advanced-economy output gaps calculated as such and are subject to significant uncertainty.
- Savings and Investment (percent of GDP)
- Based on individual countries' national accounts statistics; country group composites calculated as the sum of the U.S. dollar values for relevant individual countries.
- GDP Based on PPP Valuation
- Used as basis for country weights for WEO country group composites; IMF is not a primary source for PPP data—WEO weights created from primary sources (OECD, World Bank, Penn World Tables).
- Inflation (consumer prices; index and annual percent change)
- Data are averages for the year, not end-of-period; index based on 2000=100.
- Euro area countries and the United Kingdom: based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.
- New Zealand: excluding interest rate components.
- Islamic Republic of Iran: data refer to fiscal year.
- Unemployment Rate (percent)
- United States projections adjusted to reflect survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.
- General Government Fiscal Balances and Structural Balances
- Fiscal balances: national income accounts basis; country-specific methodological notes (Australia, Austria, France, Ireland, Korea, New Zealand) specified.
- Structural balances: defined as actual budget deficit (or surplus) less effects of cyclical deviations of output from potential output; subject to uncertainty and interpretation constraints; beyond specific consolidation programs, structural deficit assumed unchanged.
- Structural/aggregate exclusions: specified one-off receipts and large asset transactions excluded (detailed percent-of-GDP items listed for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Portugal, Ireland, and France in 2005).
- Government Gross and Net Debt
- Definitions and consolidation conventions provided; Germany data before 1990 refer to west Germany; from 1995 Treuhandanstalt debt equivalent to 8 percent of GDP and associated debt service to ½ to 1 percent of GDP are noted.
- Net Capital Flows (U.S. dollars)
- Net private capital flows comprise net direct investment, net portfolio flows, and other long- and short-term net investment flows including official and private borrowing.
- “Total Emerging Markets” and other group compositions are specified; composition notes include treatment of recapitalization in China (US$45 billion) and resulting net private flows: net private capital flows to emerging Asia in 2003 were US$107.0 billion while other private capital flows net to the region amounted to US$35.0 billion.
- Change in reserves: a minus sign indicates an increase.
- External Debt and Debt Service
- Expressed in billions of U.S. dollars and percent of U.S. dollar GDP and exports; external debt data reflect total external debt at year end for other emerging market and developing countries only.
- Current Account Balance (U.S. dollars and percent of U.S. dollar GDP)
- Based on IMF Balance of Payments Manual (5th edition, 1993); world total reflects errors, omissions, and asymmetries; euro area calculated as sum of individual euro area country balances.
- Trade Volumes and Terms of Trade (annual percent change)
- Trade volumes: trade values deflated by unit value to obtain constant price data; base year 2000.
- Average Petroleum Spot Price (APSP)
- APSP: equally weighted average of three crude oil spot prices—West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”), Dated Brent (“Brent”), and Dubai Fateh (“Dubai”). Typical inequality: WTI > Brent > Dubai.
- London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR, percent)
- Six-month rate for the United States and Japan; three-month rate for the euro area.
WEO groups, aggregates, and compositing conventions
- World divided into two major country groups: “advanced economies” and “other emerging market and developing countries.”
- Classification is not based on strict criteria but has evolved to facilitate analysis.
- A few countries are not included because they are not IMF members or databases are not completed (examples: Cuba, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, San Marino, Aruba).
- Composite data for country groups are either sums or weighted averages of individual-country data:
- Multiyear averages of growth rates are compound annual rates of change unless indicated otherwise.
- Arithmetically weighted averages used for all data except inflation and money growth for developing and transition country groups, where geometric averages are used.
- Exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates: weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
- Other domestic economy data: weighted by GDP valued at PPPs as a share of total world or group GDP.
- Euro area domestic-economy composites: national source data using weights based on 1995 ECU exchange rates.
- Composite unemployment rates and employment growth: weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.
- External economy composites: sums of individual-country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at average market exchange rates for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currency other than U.S. dollars.
- Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices: arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports in the preceding year.
Differences with International Financial Statistics (IFS)
- WEO data are provided to the Research Department at the time of the WEO exercise, not on a continual basis.
- Historical data and projections in WEO are based on information gathered by IMF country economists in the context of missions and ongoing analysis; projections are staff estimates.
- IFS data are gathered as part of an ongoing data collection effort with member country statistical agencies providing public statistics to the IMF.
- Differences in data collection techniques, methodology, focus, and timing mean IFS and WEO data may differ.
Contact and notes
- Queries about the WEO database should be sent to the e-mail address weo@imf.org.
- The site provides the most frequently requested information from the WEO database consistent with the data published in the World Economic Outlook.