From Transition to Market: Evidence and Growth Prospects

ByRatna Sahay, Stanley Fischer, Carlos A. Végh Gramont

April 1, 1998

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper presents evidence on the behavior of output and inflation in the transition economies during 1992–95. A regression analysis explores the differences in output performance across the transition economies during this period. The paper then engages in a numerical, somewhat speculative, exercise to assess the long-run growth potential of the transition economies. It concludes that it should take about 20 years for the faster reformers to reach current OECD per capita levels.

Subject: Conventional peg, Exchange rate arrangements, Foreign exchange, Government consumption, Inflation, National accounts, Population and demographics, Population growth, Prices

Keywords: Baltics, Conventional peg, Eastern Europe, Exchange rate arrangements, fiscal policy, government consumption, Government consumption, growth, Inflation, inflation country, inflation performance, inflation profile, inflation regression, inflation stabilization, Population growth, transition, transition economy, WP

Pages:
36
Volume:
1998
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451847222.001
Issue:
052
Series:
Working Paper No. 1998/052
Stock No:
WPIEA0521998
ISBN:
9781451847222
ISSN:
1018-5941

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Notes

This paper was prepared for an OECD Volume on Lessons from the Economic Transition: Central and Eastern Europe in the 1990s and presented at the OECD colloquium, held in Paris on May 29-30, 1996.

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