Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

IMF Working Papers, April 1, 2004

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Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Dalia S Hakura
• Published: April 1, 2004
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451847734.001

Overview / Summary

• This paper analyzes the weak growth performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during 1980-2000 using an empirical model of long-run growth.
• The relative importance of the factors affecting growth is shown to vary across 16 MENA countries.
• In GCC countries, where oil revenues are significant, large governments appear to have been a key factor stifling private-sector growth and impeding diversification.
• In other MENA countries poor institutional quality has held back growth.
• Political instability is also shown to have played a role.
• While the MENA region's growth differential with east Asia is explained well in the 1980s, this is less so in the 1990s.

Major findings

• Regional time frame analyzed: 1980-2000.
• Cross-country sample size: 16 MENA countries.
• Distinct drivers by subgroup:
  • GCC countries: large governments and significant oil revenues associated with stifled private-sector growth and impeded diversification.
  • Non-GCC MENA countries: poor institutional quality identified as a major constraint on growth.
• Political instability is identified as an additional negative factor for growth across the region.
• Comparison with East Asia:
  • The MENA–East Asia growth differential is well explained for the 1980s.
  • The explanation is less satisfactory for the 1990s.

Subjects and keywords (as listed)

• Subjects: Commodities, Government consumption, Income, International trade, National accounts, Oil, Production, Terms of trade, Total factor productivity
• Keywords: conflicts, country, East Africa, East Asia, economic growth, GCC, GCC country, government, Government consumption, growth differential, Income, institutions, Mena, MENA country, MENA subgroup, Middle East, Middle East and North Africa, North Africa, oil, oil country, Terms of trade, Total factor productivity, WP

Content in this bundle

• "Growth in the Middle East and North Africa," by Hakura, Dalia S. IMF Working Paper No. 04/56
  • "Growth in the Middle East and North Africa," by Hakura, Dalia S. IMF Working Paper No. 04/56 (Markdown version)
  • "Growth in the Middle East and North Africa," by Hakura, Dalia S. IMF Working Paper No. 04/56 (PDF)