How Large Was the the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications

IMF Working Papers, December 1, 1994

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Canonical URL: How Large Was the the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications

The divergence between production and consumption indicators in Russia suggests that the magnitude of the output collapse in the course of the transition is overstated by the official statistics.
Alternative estimates for real GDP are derived which reconcile the official production and consumption data.
Based on cautious assumptions, real GDP appears to have declined cumulatively by no more than one third rather than by one half.
The drop in household welfare is much smaller still, as the output mix shifts and deadweight losses are sharply reduced.

The analysis focuses on reconciling official production and consumption indicators to produce alternative real GDP estimates.
The divergence between production and consumption series is central to the argument that official statistics overstate the output collapse.

Real GDP decline: "no more than one third rather than by one half." (quoted as the authors' cautious estimate)
Pages: 38
Volume: 1994
Issue: 154
Series: Working Paper No. 1994/154
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451921847.001
Stock No: WPIEA1541994
ISBN: 9781451921847
ISSN: 1018-5941
Date: December 1, 1994
Authors: Evgeny Gavrilenkov, Vincent Koen

Subject: Consumption, Household consumption, Income, National accounts
Keywords: a number of enterprise, consumer goods, Consumption, defense enterprise, enterprise, enterprise manager, Goskomstat, Goskomstat official, Household consumption, Income, output collapse, output decline, output mix, output volume, series show, U.S.S.R. Goskomstat, WP

IMF Working Paper No. 1994/154 — Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Vincent Koen (December 1, 1994); DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451921847.001