International Spillovers of Macroeconomic Shocks: A Quantitative Exploration
IMF Working Papers, June 1, 2000
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- International Spillovers of Macroeconomic Shocks: A Quantitative Exploration
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Douglas Laxton, Eswar S Prasad
- Published: June 1, 2000
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451852509.001
Summary
- This paper provides a quantitative exploration of international spillovers of macroeconomic shocks among the major industrial economies.
- The topical example analyzed concerns the possible effects on the industrial economies of adverse shocks to the current U.S. economic expansion.
- The potential spillover effects of U.S. shocks to other industrial economies are found to be quite large.
- Extant economic conditions, particularly the low levels of nominal interest rates and the consequent possibility of liquidity traps in countries such as Japan, could significantly magnify these spillover effects.
Key findings and projections
- Spillover magnitude:
- Potential spillover effects from adverse U.S. shocks to other industrial economies are characterized as "quite large."
- Role of nominal interest rates:
- Low levels of nominal interest rates in some countries (explicitly mentioning Japan) increase the likelihood of liquidity traps.
- Liquidity traps can significantly magnify international spillovers from U.S. shocks.
- Topical focus:
- The analysis centers on adverse shocks to the U.S. economic expansion and their transmission to other major industrial economies.
Methodology and scope
- Nature of paper:
- A quantitative exploration using macroeconometric simulations (keyword appears in source).
- Geographic coverage:
- Major industrial economies; specific country example highlighted: Japan.
- Subjects and key terms emphasized in the analysis:
- Balance of payments, Current account balance, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Interest rate floor, Labor, Monetary policy, Nominal effective exchange rate, Prices, Unemployment rate.
- Keywords (as listed):
- choice of inflation target, closed economy, Current account balance, economy, GDP ratio, Global, Inflation, inflation environment, inflation rate, inflation-unemployment trade-off, int. rate, Interest rate floor, international spillovers, macroeconometric simulations, Macroeconomic shocks, monetary policy, Nominal effective exchange rate, nominal interest rate, nominal interest rate floor, price level, Unemployment rate, United States economy, WP
Content in this bundle
- International Spillovers of Microeconomic Shocks: A Quantitative Exploration - WP/00/101