Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects
IMF Working Papers, September 1, 1998
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- Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Günther Taube
- Published: September 1, 1998
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451855357.001
Summary
- Research question: What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97?
- Analytical approach: Examination of potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors” (including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policies), and sectoral output developments.
- Principal conclusion: Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone and reflects structural and resource-related factors; without significantly accelerated reforms, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.
Main findings
- (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone.
- (ii) Public investment has had no significant effects on growth.
- (iii) The mildness of Uzbekistan’s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy.
- (iv) Unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.
Analysis of explanations considered
- Measurement biases: Evaluated as a potential source of upward bias in output performance but found insufficient to fully explain the record.
- Special factors:
- Initial production structure: Identified as a key factor that cushioned the transitional recession.
- Natural resources: Energy self-sufficiency highlighted as materially contributing to milder output decline.
- Public investment policies: Assessed and found to have had no significant growth effects.
- Sectoral output developments: Examined to attribute which sectors contributed to the milder decline and the moderate recovery in 1996-97.
Policy implications and prospects
- Reform urgency: Medium-term growth prospects are characterized as mediocre unless reforms are significantly accelerated.
- Implicit policy emphasis: Acceleration of structural reforms to improve medium-term growth outlook.
IMF Working Paper: "Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects" by Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Günther Taube (Working Paper No. 1998/132).
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- Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects - WP/98/132