Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles: Evidence From Hong Kong SAR
IMF Working Papers, January 1, 2000
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- Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles: Evidence From Hong Kong SAR
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Christoph Duenwald
- Published: January 1, 2000
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451841756.001
Summary and scope
- Examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98.
- Uses time-series analysis techniques to:
- characterize price developments,
- establish empirical regularities,
- provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.”
- Highlights the role of demand-side factors.
- Notes that the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.
Key quantitative finding
- At the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.”
Methods and analytical approach
- Time-series analysis applied to residential property prices over the sample period 1980–98.
- Empirical measures constructed to quantify deviations of actual price changes from trend.
Thematic focus and subjects covered
- Asset bubbles
- Asset prices
- Financial crises
- Housing
- Housing prices
- Land prices
- National accounts
- Prices
Publication and document identifiers
- Pages: 29
- Volume: 2000
- Issue: 002
- Series: Working Paper No. 2000/002
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451841756.001
- Stock No: WPIEA0022000
- ISBN: 9781451841756
- ISSN: 1018-5941
IMF Working Paper by Christoph Duenwald, January 1, 2000.
Content in this bundle
- Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles: Evidence from Hong Kong SAR - WP/00/02