Diagnosing Dutch Disease: Does Russia Have the Symptoms?
IMF Working Papers, April 1, 2007
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- Diagnosing Dutch Disease: Does Russia Have the Symptoms?
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Katerina Kalcheva, Nienke Oomes
- Published: April 1, 2007
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451866667.001
Authors and Publication
- By Katerina Kalcheva, Nienke Oomes
- April 1, 2007
- IMF Working Papers, Series: Working Paper No. 2007/102, Issue: 102, Volume: 2007
- Pages: 32
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451866667.001
- ISBN: 9781451866667
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Stock No: WPIEA2007102
Research Objective and Scope
- Assess whether recent economic developments in Russia are symptomatic of Dutch Disease.
- Provide a brief review of the literature on Dutch Disease and the natural resource curse.
- Test predictions for Russia while carefully controlling for other factors that could have led to similar symptoms.
Symptoms of Dutch Disease (as discussed in the paper)
- (1) real exchange rate appreciation
- (2) slower manufacturing growth
- (3) faster service sector growth
- (4) higher overall wages
Methodology (summary of approach)
- Review of existing literature on Dutch Disease and the natural resource curse.
- Empirical testing of the four listed symptoms for Russia.
- Careful control for other factors that could produce similar outcomes (details of controls and empirical strategy are presented in the paper).
Key Findings and Conclusions
- Russia exhibits all of the listed symptoms of Dutch Disease:
- Real exchange rate appreciation is present.
- Manufacturing growth has been slower.
- Service sector growth has been faster.
- Overall wages have increased.
- Final assessment: "while Russia has all of the symptoms, the diagnosis of Dutch Disease remains to be confirmed."
Subjects and Keywords
- Subject: Dutch disease, Manufacturing, Oil prices, Real exchange rates, Services sector
- Keywords: appreciation, movement effect, price, Russia, service sector, WP
IMF Working Paper — Diagnosing Dutch Disease: Does Russia Have the Symptoms?