Explaining Episodes of Growth Accelerations, Decelerations, and Collapses in Western Africa
IMF Working Papers, December 1, 2008
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- Explaining Episodes of Growth Accelerations, Decelerations, and Collapses in Western Africa
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Gonzalo Salinas, Patrick A. Imam
- Published: December 1, 2008
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451871456.001
Scope and methodology
- Focus: episodes of growth turnarounds (growth accelerations, decelerations, and collapses) rather than long-run growth.
- Geographic sample: 22 Western African economies.
- Time coverage: 1960-2006.
- Empirical approach: probits to estimate driving forces of growth turnarounds.
- Variables analyzed: external shocks, political and institutional changes, economic reforms, and indicators particularly relevant to the region.
Key empirical findings
- Growth accelerations are most clearly associated with:
- external shocks
- economic liberalization
- political stability
- closeness to the coast
- Growth decelerations are associated with:
- short-lived regimes
- weakening of corruption indices
- Growth collapses are linked to:
- external shocks
- falling domestic credit
- proximity to the coast
Policy implications and analysis
- The paper identifies policy implications based on the empirical associations above (policy implications are discussed in the paper).
- Analytical emphasis: treating Western African countries on a region-specific basis and focusing on discrete turnaround episodes helps isolate drivers of growth transitions that broad cross-country long-run regressions may miss.