Global Housing Cycles

IMF Working Papers, August 1, 2012

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Global Housing Cycles

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Deniz O Igan, Prakash Loungani
• Published: August 1, 2012
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475505672.001

Summary

• Housing cycles and their impact on the financial system and the macroeconomy have become the center of attention following the global financial crisis.
• This paper documents the characteristics of housing cycles in a large set of countries, and examines the determinants of house price movements.
• Empirical analysis shows that house price dynamics are mostly driven by income and demographics but fluctuations in these fundamentals and credit conditions can create deviations from the implied equilibrium path.
• The paper concludes with a discussion of the macroeconomic implications of house price corrections.

Empirical findings

• House price dynamics are mostly driven by:
  • Income
  • Demographics
• Fluctuations in fundamentals and credit conditions can create deviations from the implied equilibrium path.
• The analysis documents characteristics of housing cycles across a large set of countries (sample size described as "a large set of countries" in the source).

Determinants of house price movements

• Primary drivers identified:
  • Income
  • Demographics
• Amplifying or deviating factors:
  • Credit conditions
  • Fluctuations in fundamentals

Macroeconomic implications

• The paper discusses the macroeconomic implications of house price corrections, linking housing cycles to effects on the financial system and broader macroeconomic activity.

Subjects and keywords

• Subject: Asset prices, Financial institutions, Housing, Housing prices, Income, Mortgages, National accounts, Prices
• Keywords: Asset prices, correlation coefficient, credit market, cycle characteristic, economic activity, equilibrium price, Global, Housing, housing cycle, Housing Cycles, Housing prices, Income, last quarter, monetary policy, Mortgage Markets, Mortgages, regression analysis, standard deviation, WP

Source: IMF Working Paper "Global Housing Cycles" (Working Paper No. 2012/217), authors Deniz O Igan and Prakash Loungani, August 1, 2012.

Content in this bundle

• Global Housing Cycles; by Deniz Igan and Prakash Loungani; IMF Working Paper 12/217; August 1, 2012
  • Global Housing Cycles; by Deniz Igan and Prakash Loungani; IMF Working Paper 12/217; August 1, 2012 (Markdown version)
  • Global Housing Cycles; by Deniz Igan and Prakash Loungani; IMF Working Paper 12/217; August 1, 2012 (PDF)