Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with An Application to Turkey

November 1, 2004

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper presents an empirical measure of disinflation credibility and discusses its evolution in Turkey since the 2001 crisis. The results indicate that credibility has improved markedly over this period, boding well for the future of disinflation in Turkey.

Subject: Asset prices, Consumer price indexes, Disinflation, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Prices

Keywords: Asset prices, Bayesian Learning, consumer price index, Consumer price indexes, Credibility, Disinflation, disinflation credibility, disinflation history, disinflation process, disinflation program, Inflation, inflation rate, Inflation targeting, Mixing Estimation, program coefficient, Turkey, WP

Pages:
14
Volume:
2004
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874730.001
Issue:
208
Series:
Working Paper No. 2004/208
Stock No:
WPIEA2082004
ISBN:
9781451874730
ISSN:
1018-5941

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