Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with An Application to Turkey
IMF Working Papers, November 1, 2004
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- Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with An Application to Turkey
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Alessandro Rebucci, Marco Rossi
- Published: November 1, 2004
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874730.001
Overview
- Authors: Alessandro Rebucci, Marco Rossi
- Date: November 1, 2004
- Paper type: IMF Working Papers (Working Paper No. 2004/208)
- Core contribution: Presents an empirical measure of disinflation credibility using a Bayesian approach and discusses its evolution in Turkey since the 2001 crisis.
- Main summary statement: The results indicate that credibility has improved markedly over this period, boding well for the future of disinflation in Turkey.
Key findings
- Credibility has improved markedly in Turkey since the 2001 crisis.
- Improved credibility bodes well for the future of disinflation in Turkey.
Methodological approach
- Uses a Bayesian approach to construct an empirical measure of disinflation credibility.
- Keywords indicating technical methods and focus: Bayesian Learning, Mixing Estimation, program coefficient.
Application to Turkey
- Focuses on the evolution of disinflation credibility in Turkey since the 2001 crisis.
- Concludes markedly improved credibility over the analyzed period, with positive implications for sustaining disinflation.