Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach
IMF Working Papers, June 1, 2012
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- Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Francis Vitek
- Published: June 1, 2012
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475504187.001
Model structure and features
- Develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies.
- Panel unobserved components model that incorporates:
- a monetary transmission mechanism;
- a fiscal transmission mechanism;
- extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within and across economies.
- Estimation and analysis are conducted within a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
Applications demonstrated
- Monetary policy analysis using the estimated model.
- Fiscal policy analysis using the estimated model.
- Spillover analysis across economies.
- Forecasting applications based on the estimated model.
Subject coverage and technical keywords
- Subjects: Balance of payments, Central bank policy rate, Current account balance, Financial services, Inflation, Market interest rates, National accounts, Prices, Return on investment.
- Keywords include: Bayesian econometrics, business cycle, Central bank policy rate, cross-economy equality restriction, current account, Current account balance, Fiscal policy analysis, Forecasting, Global, Inflation, interest rate, Market interest rates, monetary policy, Monetary policy analysis, Panel unobserved components model, policy interest rate, price inflation, recipient economy, Return on investment, risk premium, Spillover analysis, terms of trade, transmission mechanism, World economy, WP.