Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
IMF Working Papers, September 1, 2004
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Brou E Aka, Bernardin Akitoby, Amor Tahari, Dhaneshwar Ghura
- Published: September 1, 2004
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451858846.001
Summary findings
- Analysis of 1960-2002 data shows that average real GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa was low and decelerated continuously before starting to recover in the second part of the 1990s.
- Growth was driven primarily by factor accumulation with little role for total factor productivity (TFP) growth.
- The recent pickup in economic growth was accompanied by an increase in TFP growth, namely in the group of countries whose IMF-supported programs were judged to be on track.
- Average annual growth in the region, at 3½ percent during 1997-2002, is less than half of the estimated growth needed to halve the fraction of population living below $1 per day between 1990 and 2015, one of the Millennium Development Goals.
Data and period covered
- Sample period: 1960-2002.
- Highlight period for recovery and higher TFP: second part of the 1990s and specifically 1997-2002.
Growth drivers and productivity
- Primary driver: factor accumulation.
- Limited role: total factor productivity (TFP) growth for most of the period.
- Notable exception: countries with IMF-supported programs judged to be on track experienced an increase in TFP growth accompanying the recent pickup in economic growth.
Development implications
- Regional growth performance (3½ percent average annual growth during 1997-2002) falls short of the pace required to meet the Millennium Development Goal of halving the fraction of population living below $1 per day between 1990 and 2015.