The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring
IMF Working Papers, March 13, 2013
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- The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Padamja Khandelwal, Agustin Roitman
- Published: March 13, 2013
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475569643.001
Overview
- Authors: Padamja Khandelwal, Agustin Roitman
- Date: March 13, 2013
- Core premise: Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. The paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition.
- Central finding summarized: In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.
Key findings and projections
- Comparable historical episodes typically show:
- A sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes.
- A sluggish recovery over the medium term.
- Recent developments in the Arab countries in transition:
- Appear to be unfolding along similar lines to past episodes of political instability.
- Face additional risks from a weak external environment.
- Face additional risks from large fiscal vulnerabilities that could result in a prolonged slump.
Themes and subject coverage
- Subjects listed: Balance of payments, Current account deficits, Exchange rate flexibility, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Prices, Real effective exchange rates
- Keywords include: Africa, Arab Countries in Transition, Arab Spring, country indices, currency depreciation, current account, current account balance, Current account deficits, deficit, E. exchange rates, Eastern Europe, Economic growth, Exchange rate flexibility, Fiscal stance, Global, government, government crisis, IMF staff projection, Inflation, inflation development, PI episode, political instability, Real effective exchange rates, regime change, WP