The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies: A New Hope or Back to the Future?
IMF Working Papers, May 30, 2013
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: John C Bluedorn, Rupa Duttagupta, Jaime Guajardo, Nkunde Mwase
- Published: May 30, 2013
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484321980.001
Summary and central findings
- Growth takeoffs in developing economies have rebounded in the past two decades.
- Recent takeoffs have lasted longer than takeoffs before the 1990s, but a key question is whether they could unravel like some did in the past.
- Recent takeoffs are associated with stronger economic conditions, such as:
- lower post-takeoff debt and inflation levels;
- more competitive real exchange rates;
- better structural reforms and institutions.
- The chances of starting a takeoff in the 2000s was triple that before the 1990s, with domestic conditions accounting for most of the increase.
- The findings suggest that if today’s dynamic developing economies sustain their improved policies; they are more likely to stay on course compared to many of their predecessors.
Subjects and keywords
- Subject: Export performance, External debt, Foreign exchange, Income inequality, International trade, National accounts, Public debt, Real exchange rates
- Keywords: convergence, development, dynamic LIC, economy group, exchange rate, Export performance, Global, growth, growth takeoff, IMF staff calculation, Income inequality, LIC takeoff, low-income countries, Real exchange rates, saving-investment gap, takeoff, WP
Policy implications and interpretation
- Sustaining improved domestic policies and structural reforms appears critical for recent takeoffs to persist rather than unravel.
- Lower post-takeoff debt and inflation, more competitive real exchange rates, and stronger institutions are identified as supportive conditions for lasting growth takeoffs.
IMF Working Paper — The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies: A New Hope or Back to the Future? (Working Paper No. 2013/132, May 30, 2013)