The Persistence of Capital Account Crises
IMF Working Papers, May 1, 2009
Source details
- Canonical URL
- The Persistence of Capital Account Crises
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Authors: Mauro Mecagni, Ruben V Atoyan, David J Hofman
- Published: May 1, 2009
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451872507.001
Summary and contributions
- The study analyzes crisis episodes between 1994 and 2002.
- Two main contributions:
- Establishes a clear relationship between the persistence of crises, their complexity, and the intensity of movement of key macroeconomic variables.
- Provides a systematic examination of the determinants of crisis duration through econometric analysis.
- Key high-level conclusion: initial conditions and the external environment play a key role in determining crisis persistence; the policy response also matters but cannot offset a record of poor past policies.
- Policy implication emphasized: the results underscore the critical importance of crisis prevention efforts.
Empirical findings and econometric results (as described)
- Crisis persistence is positively associated with crisis complexity and the intensity of movements in key macroeconomic variables (relationship described qualitatively in the summary).
- Determinants highlighted by the econometric analysis:
- Initial conditions.
- External environment.
- Policy response (secondary role; cannot fully offset poor past policies).
Thematic subjects and keywords
- Subjects: Balance of payments; Capital account crisis; Exchange rate arrangements; External debt; Financial crises; Financial services; Foreign exchange; Real interest rates.
- Keywords: A. crisis persistence; balance sheets; capital account crises; Capital account crisis; crisis; crisis complexity; crisis duration; crisis prevention effort; debt; exchange rate; Exchange rate arrangements; Global; IMF financing; persistence; Real interest rates; WP.