The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?

IMF Working Papers, February 12, 2014

Source details

The rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession is analyzed using panel regressions.
Factors found to have a positive impact on U.S. manufacturing production:
- a depreciating real exchange rate
- an increasing spread in natural gas prices between the United States and other G-7 countries
- decreasing unit labor costs (highlighted as particularly influential)
The analysis suggests it is unlikely for manufacturing to become a main engine of growth in the United States.
U.S. manufacturing exports are identified as a potential source of nonnegligible growth opportunities going forward.

Economic sectors; Financial crises; Foreign exchange; Fuel prices; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Labor; Labor costs; Manufacturing; Personal income; Prices; Real effective exchange rates.

Asia and Pacific, cost, durable and nondurable subsectors, durable goods, durable goods production, exchange rate, Fuel prices, Global, Global Financial Crisis, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, growth, Labor costs, Manufacturing, nondurable goods, per capita income, price, production, Real effective exchange rates, shale gas, share of U.S., U.S relative, U.S. manufacturing sector, unit labor cost, WP

Source: IMF Working Paper — "The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?", February 12, 2014.