The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method
IMF Working Papers, March 9, 2017
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- The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Swarnali A Hannan
- Published: March 9, 2017
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475585544.001
Study scope and methods
- Method: synthetic control method (SCM).
- Sample: 64 Latin American country pairs.
- Sample period: 1989-1996.
- Comparative reference: world average sample of 104 country pairs in the period 1983-1995.
- Publication: IMF Working Paper No. 2017/045, Pages: 29, Volume: 2017, Issue: 045, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475585544.001, ISBN: 9781475585544, ISSN: 1018-5941.
- Author and date: By Swarnali A Hannan, March 9, 2017.
Key empirical findings
- Trade agreements have markedly boosted exports in Latin America.
- Measured effect: on average, exports increased by 76.4 percentage points over ten years following the trade agreements.
- Heterogeneity: there is variation across countries and agreements in the size of export gains.
- Comparative outcome: the export gains due to trade agreements in Latin America are lower than the world average observed for 104 country pairs in 1983-1995.
Subjects and keywords (as listed)
- Subjects: Customs unions, Export performance, Exports, International trade, North American Free Trade Agreement, Trade agreements.
- Keywords: base effect, Central America, country pair, Customs unions, dynamic emerging market trade hub, export boost, export gain, export gains of Mercosur, export growth, Export performance, Exports, Global, international trade flows, market trade hub, North America, North American Free Trade Agreement, partner countries' share, region heterogeneity, synthetic control method, Trade agreements, trade crisis, trade openness, WP.
Research context and limitations (from notice on the page)
- Nature of paper: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.
- Views expressed: the views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Source: "The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method", By Swarnali A Hannan, March 9, 2017.
Content in this bundle
- wp1745 — "Export Gains over Ten Years"