IMF Lending in an Interconnected World
IMF Working Papers, July 10, 2017
Source details
- Canonical URL
- IMF Lending in an Interconnected World
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Authors: Jean-Guillaume Poulain, Julien Reynaud
- Published: July 10, 2017
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484305867.001
Objective and scope
- Analyze the determinants of IMF lending since the early nineties, focusing on the roles of financial cycles and interconnectedness as amplifiers and transmitters of economic crises.
- Assess how global factors, interconnectedness, and idiosyncratic country factors affect the probability that a member country obtains financial assistance from the IMF.
- Time period covered: 1992-2014.
- Sample: panel of 91 advanced, emerging, and frontier economies.
Data and approach
- Empirical framework uses a panel of 91 countries over 1992-2014.
- Interconnectedness proxied by a country’s potential exposure to economic spillovers from trade partners.
- Global financial cycle measured and tested as a driver of IMF lending cycles.
- Results subjected to various robustness checks.
Key findings
- The global financial cycle is an important driver of IMF lending cycles.
- Global factors and interconnectedness, together with traditional idiosyncratic country factors, have a significant impact on the probability that a member country obtains financial assistance from the IMF.
- Findings are robust to various robustness checks.
- The approach can be used to assess future demand for IMF financial assistance.
Subject areas and keywords (as listed)
- Subjects: Balance of payments, Current account deficits, Financial contagion, Financial crises, Financial sector policy and analysis, Oil prices, Prices, Spillovers.
- Keywords: Current account deficits, Financial contagion, financial crisis, fund support, GDP, GDP variation, Global, global financial cycle, IMF agreement, IMF arrangement, IMF lending, IMF lending cycle, interconnectedness, lending, Oil prices, spillovers, WP.
Content in this bundle
- IMF Lending in an Interconnected World, WP/17/155, July 2017