Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa
IMF Working Papers, September 8, 2017
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- Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Francisco Arizala, Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Charalambos G Tsangarides, Mustafa Yenice
- Published: September 8, 2017
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484314166.001
Overview and research question
- Paper examines growth performance of sub-Saharan African countries since 1960 through the lens of growth turning points (accelerations and decelerations) and periods of sustained growth (growth spells).
- Authors: Francisco Arizala, Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Charalambos G Tsangarides, Mustafa Yenice.
- Date: September 8, 2017.
- Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2017/202, Volume: 2017, Issue: 202, Pages: 37.
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484314166.001.
- ISBN: 9781484314166. ISSN: 1018-5941.
Key empirical findings
- Growth accelerations are generally associated with:
- improved external conditions,
- increased investment and trade openness,
- declines in inflation,
- better fiscal balances,
- improvements in the institutional environment.
- Transitioning from growth accelerations to growth spells often requires additional efforts beyond what is needed to trigger an acceleration.
- Growth spells are sustained by a combination of:
- fiscal policy that prevents excessive public debt accumulation,
- monetary policy geared toward low inflation,
- outward-oriented trade policies,
- structural policies that reduce market distortions,
- a supportive external environment,
- improvements in democratic institutions.
- Determinants of growth spells in sub-Saharan Africa are different from those in the rest of the emerging and developing countries.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Sustain fiscal policies that prevent excessive public debt accumulation to support growth spells.
- Pursue monetary policy focused on maintaining low inflation to sustain growth.
- Adopt outward-oriented trade policies to help transition accelerations into sustained spells.
- Implement structural policies to reduce market distortions and strengthen the institutional environment.
- Strengthen democratic institutions as part of a holistic strategy to sustain growth spells.
- Recognize that policies sufficient to trigger growth accelerations may not be sufficient to sustain growth spells; additional, sustained reforms and supportive external conditions are required.
Subject classifications and keywords (as listed)
- Subject: Exchange rate arrangements, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Oil prices, Prices, Public debt, Real exchange rates.
- Keywords: accelerations, Africa, aid flows to sub-Saharan Africa increase, Asia and Pacific, break size, developing economy, duration analysis, Exchange rate arrangements, fed funds rate, foreign direct investment, Global, Growth, growth accelerations in sub-Saharan Africa, growth spell, hard landing, Inflation, Middle East, North Africa, Oil prices, Real exchange rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, sub-Saharan Africa sample, sub-Saharan Africa trade integration, terms of trade, WP.
Source: IMF Working Paper "Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa" by Francisco Arizala, Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Charalambos G Tsangarides, and Mustafa Yenice (September 8, 2017), Working Paper No. 2017/202, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484314166.001.
Content in this bundle
- Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa, WP/17/202, September 2017