Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak
IMF Working Papers, November 15, 2017
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- Canonical URL
- Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Era Dabla-Norris, Pietro Dallari, Tigran Poghosyan
- Published: November 15, 2017
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484328262.001
Research question and methodology
- Estimate a panel VAR model that captures cross-country, dynamic interlinkages for 10 euro area countries.
- Data frequency and sample: quarterly data for the period 1999-2016.
- Authors: Era Dabla-Norris, Pietro Dallari, Tigran Poghosyan.
- Publication date: November 15, 2017.
- Publication details (as reported):
- Pages: 50
- Volume: 2017
- Issue: 241
- Series: Working Paper No. 2017/241
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484328262.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2017241
- ISBN: 9781484328262
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Key empirical findings
- Fiscal spillovers are significant across the euro area.
- Spillovers tend to be larger for countries with close trade and financial links.
- Spillovers tend to be larger for fiscal shocks originating from larger countries.
- The current account appears to be the main channel of transmission.
- Strong trade integration among euro area countries and spillback effects can tend to zero-out the net trade impact in some cases.
Time variation and subsample analysis
- A subsample analysis shows that the effects of fiscal policy have changed over time.
- Larger estimated domestic multipliers and spillovers are observed between 2011 and 2014.
Subject coverage and keywords (as listed)
- Subjects: Balance of payments, Current account, Expenditure, Financial sector policy and analysis, Fiscal multipliers, Fiscal policy, Spillovers.
- Keywords: Bayesian Methods, common currency, country, Current account, fiscal multiplier, Fiscal Multipliers, fiscal policy shock, Fiscal Spillovers, Global, government spending, government spending shock, net effect, Panel VAR, Spillovers, trade, trade openness, WP.
IMF Working Paper: "Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak" (Era Dabla-Norris, Pietro Dallari, Tigran Poghosyan), November 15, 2017.
Content in this bundle
- Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak, WP/17/241, November 2017