A New Smartphone for Every Fifth Person on Earth: Quantifying the New Tech Cycle
IMF Working Papers, January 24, 2018
Source details
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- A New Smartphone for Every Fifth Person on Earth: Quantifying the New Tech Cycle
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Benjamin Carton, Joannes Mongardini, Yiqun Li
- Published: January 24, 2018
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484339695.001
Authors and publication
- By Benjamin Carton, Joannes Mongardini, Yiqun Li
- January 24, 2018
- IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2018/022
- Pages: 22
- Issue: 022
- Volume: 2018
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484339695.001
- ISBN: 9781484339695
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Stock No: WPIEA2018022
Core findings
- The enormous global demand for smartphones has created a new global tech cycle.
- In 2016 alone, global smartphone sales reached close to 1.5 billion, one for every fifth person on earth.
- The new tech cycle cannot be captured by standard seasonality; it depends on smartphone product release dates.
- Decomposing cycle from trend shows that the sale of smartphones may have peaked in late 2015.
- Asia continues to gain in importance as the global tech manufacturer, reflecting complex and evolving supply chains across Asia.
Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Export performance, Exports, International trade, Mobile internet, Technology
- Keywords: Apple iPhones, Asia and Pacific, China, China exports decomposition, electronics export order, export, export order, Export performance, Exports, Global, global supply chains, global trade, Mobile internet, release date, Samsung smartphone, smartphone, smartphone export cycle, smartphone release, tech cycle, WP
Methodological note (as described)
- The analysis distinguishes cycle from trend in smartphone sales to assess whether observed patterns are seasonal or linked to product release timing.
Implications highlighted
- Standard seasonal models are insufficient for capturing the dynamics of the smartphone-driven tech cycle; models must account for product release dates.
- Shifts in global manufacturing importance toward Asia have implications for global supply chains and export performance.
IMF Working Paper — "A New Smartphone for Every Fifth Person on Earth: Quantifying the New Tech Cycle", Benjamin Carton, Joannes Mongardini, Yiqun Li, January 24, 2018.