The U.S. Personal Saving Rate
IMF Working Papers, June 5, 2018
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- The U.S. Personal Saving Rate
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Sam Ouliaris, Celine Rochon
- Published: June 5, 2018
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484357941.001
Model and estimation approach
- Develops a time series model for aggregate consumption to predict the U.S. personal saving rate.
- Unknown parameters estimated using data for 1961Q1-2007Q4 (pre-crisis sample).
- Model used to predict the saving rate from 2008Q1 onwards to assess whether post-2008 dynamics reflect transitory shocks or structural changes in elasticities.
- Methodology described includes vector error correction models (as indicated in Subjects/Keywords).
Key findings
- Before the 2008 financial crisis, the personal saving rate was trending downwards.
- In 2008 there was a significant rise in the saving rate that continued until the end of 2012, which superficially suggested a permanent change in household behavior.
- Statistical evidence from the model indicates there was no structural break in household saving behavior.
- The rise in the saving rate during 2008-2012 is attributed to negative shocks to income, employment and wealth (sizable but transitory shocks), rather than changes in underlying saving elasticities.
- The saving rate resumed its decline in 2013 as real disposable income, employment and net worth recovered.
Projections and macroeconomic implications
- Assuming that real growth in the determinants (real disposable income, employment, net worth) remains strong, the estimated model predicts:
- Continued negative pressures on the current account deficit.
- Further external imbalances attributable to the U.S. household sector.
Subjects and analytical focus
- Consumption; Disposable income; Econometric analysis; Income; National accounts; Private savings; Vector error correction models.
- Keywords include: consumer sentiment, Consumption, consumption behavior, Disposable income, financial crisis, Global, gross saving, Income, personal saving rate, Private savings, saving behavior, saving function, saving propensity, saving rate, structural break, Vector error correction models, vector error-correction model, WP.
Sam Ouliaris, and Celine Rochon. "The U.S. Personal Saving Rate", IMF Working Papers 2018, 128 (2018), accessed 9/18/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484357941.001
Content in this bundle
- The U.S. Personal Saving Rate, WP/18/128, June 2018