Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

IMF Working Papers, July 24, 2019

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Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Francisco Arizala, Matthieu Bellon, Margaux MacDonald
• Published: July 24, 2019
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498320498.001

Authors and Publication

• By Francisco Arizala, Matthieu Bellon, Margaux MacDonald
• July 24, 2019
• IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2019/160
• Pages: 29
• Volume: 2019
• Issue: 160
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498320498.001
• Stock No: WPIEA2019160
• ISBN: 9781498320498
• ISSN: 1018-5941

Summary of Findings

• Intraregional trade in sub-Saharan Africa has shown a steady increase since 1980.
• The rise in intraregional trade is linked to important growth spillovers within the region.
• Short-run effects:
  • Positive idiosyncratic shocks to regional trading partners’ growth significantly increase growth in the average sub-Saharan African country.
• Long-run effects:
  • The annual impact of growth in regional trading partners is smaller in magnitude compared with short-run impacts.

Main Analytical Contributions

• Documents trends in intraregional trade since 1980.
• Links intraregional trade growth to measurable growth spillovers across sub-Saharan African countries.
• Identifies:
  • The main source countries of regional spillovers.
  • Countries most vulnerable to the economic conditions of others.

Policy Implications and Recommendations

• Support further continent-wide integration to enhance associated growth spillovers.
• Propose actions policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa can take to:
  • Capture the benefits of regional growth spillovers.
  • Limit exposure to associated risks stemming from partner-country shocks.

Subjects and Keywords

• Subject: Direction of trade, Exports, Financial sector policy and analysis, Imports, International trade, Regional trade, Spillovers
• Keywords: A. Intraregional trade linkage, Africa, Direction of trade, Exports, Global, Growth, IMF staff calculation, Imports, North Africa, real GDP, Regional Integration, Regional trade, Spillovers, statistics database, Sub-Saharan Africa, sub-Saharan Africa country, sub-Saharan Africa real GDP growth, sub-Saharan Africa shock, Sub-Saharan Africa spillover, WP

Source: IMF Working Papers — "Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa" (July 24, 2019) by Francisco Arizala, Matthieu Bellon, Margaux MacDonald.

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