Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time

IMF Working Papers, December 13, 2019

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Canonical URL: Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time

Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is proposed as a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time.
Using Malta as a benchmark, the study develops indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls.
The study tests the quality of these indicators by comparing them with official statistics on trade and maritime statistics.
The approach aims to enable statistical agencies to complement existing data sources on trade and introduce new statistics that are more timely (real time), facilitating faster detection of turning points in economic activity.
The approach could be extended to create a real-time worldwide indicator of global trade activity.

Primary data source: AIS-based port call data.
Benchmark country: Malta.
Validation approach: Compare AIS-derived indicators with official trade and maritime statistics.
Key methodological challenge identified: data quality issues associated with port call data that require appropriate filtering techniques.

If the challenges associated with port call data are overcome through appropriate filtering techniques, AIS-based vessel traffic data can:
- Allow statistical agencies to complement existing data sources on trade.
- Introduce new, more timely (real time) statistics to measure trade activity.
- Facilitate faster detection of turning points in economic activity.
The study demonstrates feasibility using Malta as a benchmark and suggests scalability to a real-time worldwide indicator of global trade activity.

Statistical agencies should consider integrating AIS-based vessel traffic indicators into their toolkits to obtain more timely measures of trade activity.
Implementation requires development and application of appropriate filtering techniques to address port call data challenges.
Adoption of AIS-based indicators could improve real-time monitoring of trade flows and enhance early detection of economic turning points.