Guyana: Housing Market and Implications for Macroprudential Policies
IMF Working Papers, January 31, 2020
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- Guyana: Housing Market and Implications for Macroprudential Policies
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Julian T Chow
- Published: January 31, 2020
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513526324.001
Overview
- Residential real estate prices in Guyana have been rising, particularly in the capital city Georgetown, following the discovery of oil in 2015.
- Commercial banks’ housing loans have increased in line with growing demand for housing, prompting higher household debt.
- The paper presents two analyses suggesting housing prices in Georgetown and banks’ lending to the housing sector appear to be in their early stages of growth.
- Given data limitations and caveats, the findings could also indicate early signals of possible risks.
- Further data collection would support surveillance and deeper studies.
Key findings
- Housing prices in Georgetown have been rising since the discovery of oil in 2015.
- Commercial banks’ housing loans have increased alongside housing demand, contributing to higher household debt.
- Two analyses in the paper suggest the observed dynamics (prices and lending) are in early stages of growth, but data limitations mean these patterns could equally be interpreted as early risk signals.
Data limitations and caveats
- The analyses are underpinned by data limitations and caveats that reduce certainty about whether current developments represent benign growth or early warning signs of risk.
- The paper emphasizes the need for further data collection to support surveillance and deeper studies.
Policy recommendations and implications
- Strengthen monitoring of the housing market.
- Strengthen monitoring of bank lending practices.
- Strengthen monitoring of household debt.
- Fortify the macroprudential framework, including with more effective toolkits for early intervention.
Keywords and subjects (as listed)
- Subjects: Financial institutions, Housing, Housing prices, Loans, Mortgages, National accounts, Prices, Real estate prices
- Keywords: consumer price index, Guyana, Housing, housing Index, housing loan, housing market, Housing prices, lending, lending practice, Loans, macroeco-financial stability, macroprudential policies, mortgage, mortgage lending, Mortgages, Real estate prices, sector risk, softening housing market, WP
Julian T Chow. January 31, 2020. IMF Working Papers 2020, 020 (Working Paper No. 2020/020); Pages: 26; DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513526324.001; Stock No: WPIEA2020020; ISBN: 9781513526324; ISSN: 1018-5941.
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