Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History
IMF Working Papers, December 11, 2020
Source details
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- Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Serhan Cevik, Fedor Miryugin
- Published: December 11, 2020
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513563893.001
Overview
- Authors: Serhan Cevik, Fedor Miryugin
- Publication date: December 11, 2020
- Publication type: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2020/276, Issue: 276, Volume: 2020
- Pages: 24
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513563893.001
- ISBN: 9781513563893
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Stock No: WPIEA2020276
Research scope and data
- Sample: firm-level data on more than 537,000 companies
- Geography: 14 developing countries
- Time period: 1998–2018
- Subject tags included: Communicable diseases, COVID-19, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial sector development, Population and demographics
- Keywords included: firm level, firm performance, firm-level, liquidity pressure, nonfinancial corporate performance, nonfinancial firm, Pandemics, revenue base, sector peer, WP
Key empirical findings
- The prevalence of infectious diseases has an economically and statistically significant negative effect on nonfinancial corporate performance.
- The adverse impact is particularly pronounced on smaller and younger firms compared to larger and more established corporations.
- A higher number of infectious-disease cases in population increases the probability of failure among nonfinancial firms, particularly for small and young firms.
- For COVID-19, the paper states: "the magnitude of these effects will be much greater, given the unprecedented scale of the outbreak and strict policy responses to contain its spread."
Implications and interpretation
- Smaller and younger nonfinancial firms face greater vulnerability to infectious-disease prevalence through lower performance and higher failure probability.
- Large-scale pandemics with strict containment policies (as in COVID-19) are expected to amplify these negative effects relative to historical pandemics covered in the 1998–2018 sample.
Metadata and access
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- Citation format example provided on the page (Chicago)
Source: IMF Working Paper "Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History" by Serhan Cevik and Fedor Miryugin, December 11, 2020.
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