Pandemics and Automation: Will the Lost Jobs Come Back?
IMF Working Papers, January 15, 2021
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Tahsin Saadi Sedik
- Published: January 15, 2021
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513566849.001
Overview
- Author: Tahsin Saadi Sedik
- Date: January 15, 2021
- Series: Working Paper No. 2021/011
- Issue: 011; Volume: 2021; Pages: 26
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513566849.001
- ISBN: 9781513566849; ISSN: 1018-5941
- Subjects: Automation, Communicable diseases, COVID-19, Income inequality, Robotics
- Keywords: country-industry pair level, impact of pandemic, industry breakdown, Inequality., pandemic event, Pandemics, Robots, studies showing, WP
Key empirical findings
- Pandemic events accelerate robot adoption, especially when:
- the health impact is severe, and
- the pandemic is associated with a significant economic downturn.
- Robots can raise productivity but may increase inequality by displacing low-skilled workers.
- Following a pandemic, the increase in inequality over the medium term is larger for economies with:
- higher robot density, and
- greater increases in new robot adoption.
- The paper concludes that concerns about increased automation amid the COVID-19 pandemic appear justified.
Analysis focus and methodology (as described)
- Empirical analysis of the impact of past major pandemics on:
- robot adoption, and
- inequality.
- Unit of observation and approach referenced by keywords: country-industry pair level; industry breakdown.
Implications and interpretation
- Automation trends post-pandemic:
- Expect accelerated adoption of robots where pandemics have severe health and economic impacts.
- Distributional consequences:
- Medium-term increases in inequality are correlated with pre-existing robot density and additional robot adoption following pandemics.
- Policy-relevant takeaway:
- Trade-offs between productivity gains from robots and distributional impacts due to displacement of low-skilled workers are highlighted by the empirical findings.
IMF Working Papers: Tahsin Saadi Sedik, "Pandemics and Automation: Will the Lost Jobs Come Back?", January 15, 2021, Working Paper No. 2021/011, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513566849.001
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- Working Paper