What Determines Social Distancing? Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Market Economies

IMF Working Papers, May 1, 2021

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Examines determinants of individual compliance with recommended protective behaviors using survey data from the COVID Behavior Tracker for 29 advanced and emerging market economies between March and December 2020.
Social distancing behaviors vary significantly by age, gender, occupation, and individual beliefs about COVID-19.
Those who trust their government’s response to COVID-19 are significantly more likely to adopt recommended behaviors and to self-isolate if advised.
Mobility restrictions, such as stay-at-home orders, and mask mandates are associated with reduced social interactions and persistent increases in compliance.
Together, these drivers account for over two-thirds of the regional differences in compliance.

Determinants of compliance:
- Age, gender, and occupation are significant predictors of social distancing behaviors.
- Individual beliefs about COVID-19 are closely linked to protective behavior adoption.
- Trust in government response increases likelihood of adopting recommended behaviors and self-isolating if advised.
Policy interventions:
- Mobility restrictions (e.g., stay-at-home orders) are associated with reduced social interactions.
- Mask mandates are associated with reduced social interactions and persistent increases in compliance.
Quantified impact:
- The identified drivers (demographics, beliefs, trust, and policy measures) explain over two-thirds of the regional differences in compliance.

Strengthening public trust in government responses can increase adoption of recommended protective behaviors and self-isolation compliance.
Well-coordinated health and economic actions are important given the link between trust and compliance.
Implementing mobility restrictions and mask mandates can reduce social interactions and raise persistent compliance.