Who Doesn’t Want to be Vaccinated? Determinants of Vaccine Hesitancy During COVID-19
IMF Working Papers, May 6, 2021
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- Who Doesn’t Want to be Vaccinated? Determinants of Vaccine Hesitancy During COVID-19
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Hibah Khan, Era Dabla-Norris, Frederico Lima, Alexandre Sollaci
- Published: May 6, 2021
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513573717.001
Summary
- Quick vaccine rollouts are crucial for a strong economic recovery, but vaccine hesitancy could prolong the pandemic and the need for social distancing and lockdowns.
- Individual-level data from nationally representative surveys developed by YouGov and Imperial College London are used to empirically examine determinants of vaccine hesitancy across 17 countries and over time.
- Vaccine hesitancy is introduced into an extended SIR model to assess its impact on pandemic dynamics.
Key empirical findings
- Vaccine demand depends on demographic features:
- Age
- Gender
- Vaccine demand also depends on perceptions and behavioral factors:
- Perceptions about the severity of COVID-19
- Perceptions about side effects of the vaccine
- Vaccine access
- Compliance with protective behaviors
- Overall trust in government
- How information is shared with peers
Model results and scenarios
- Introducing vaccine hesitancy into an extended SIR model yields two key scenario outcomes:
- If hesitancy slows down vaccine rollouts, hesitancy can increase COVID-19 infections and deaths significantly.
- If all willing adults can be immunized rapidly, hesitancy has a smaller impact on pandemic outcomes.
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