The Sectoral Trade Losses from Financial Crises
IMF Working Papers, June 25, 2021
Source details
- Canonical URL
- The Sectoral Trade Losses from Financial Crises
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Authors: Jean-Marc Atsebi, Jean-Louis Combes, Alexandru Minea
- Published: June 25, 2021
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513586731.001
Scope and objective
- Examines trade losses from financial crises with a sectoral perspective: agricultural, mining, manufactured goods, and services.
- Considers different types of financial crises: debt, banking, and currency crises.
- Period covered: 1980-2018.
- Authors: Jean-Marc Atsebi, Jean-Louis Combes, Alexandru Minea.
- Publication date: June 25, 2021.
Methodology
- Uses a combination of impact assessment and local projections to capture a causal dynamic effect running from financial crises to trade activity.
- Empirical estimations performed on the 1980-2018 period.
Key findings
- The collapse of total trade following financial crises is long-lasting.
- Declines in trade are mainly driven by the fall of manufacturing trade and, to some extent, services trade.
- The causal effects of financial crises on trade operate through three channels:
- Structural channel.
- Demand-side channel.
- Supply-side channel.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Analysis provides support for the design and implementation of policies aimed at coping with trade effects induced by financial crises.
- Policies should consider sectoral heterogeneity, with particular focus on manufacturing and services trade recovery measures.
- Addressing all three channels (structural, demand-side, supply-side) is important for comprehensive policy responses.
Content in this bundle
- Working Paper