Supply Chains and Port Congestion Around the World

IMF Working Papers, March 25, 2022

Source details

Shipping times jumped upwards as soon as the COVID crisis hit.
After a marked acceleration from end-2020, delays surpassed 1.5 days on average by December 2021.
The average additional days in transit for December 2021 can be compared to an ad-valorem tariff of 0.9 to 3.1 percent.
Many ports, especially since mid-2021, exhibit longer wait times despite handling less cargo than pre-pandemic.
Infrastructure upgrading is likely a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for building resilience during a crisis where other factors (such as labor shortages) may also become binding.

Delay level: "delays surpassed 1.5 days on average by December 2021."
Relative increase: "roughly a 25 percent increase in global travel times."
Tariff-equivalent impact: "an ad-valorem tariff of 0.9 to 3.1 percent."
Historical comparison: "The midpoint of this range is approximately equal, in absolute value, to the global applied tariff reduction achieved over the 14-year period from 2003 to 2017."

Timing: shipping times increased immediately with the onset of the COVID crisis and accelerated from end-2020.
Demand vs. capacity: not all congestion appears related to increased demand; many ports face longer wait times despite handling less cargo than pre-pandemic.
Binding constraints: besides infrastructure, other factors such as labor shortages can become binding and limit resilience.

Infrastructure upgrading is necessary to address port congestion.
Infrastructure alone is insufficient; policy responses must also address non-infrastructural constraints, notably labor shortages.
Assessments of supply-chain resilience should incorporate both physical capacity and labor/operational factors to mitigate delays and their economic equivalents (e.g., ad-valorem tariff impacts).

Source: "Supply Chains and Port Congestion Around the World", IMF Working Paper No. 2022/059 (March 25, 2022).