Estimating Digital Infrastructure Investment Needs to Achieve Universal Broadband

IMF Working Papers, February 10, 2023

Source details

Canonical URL: Estimating Digital Infrastructure Investment Needs to Achieve Universal Broadband

Approximately $418 billion needs to be mobilized to connect all unconnected citizens globally (targeting 40-50 GB/Month per user with 95 percent reliability).
The bulk of additional investment is for emerging market economies: 73 percent.
Low-income developing countries account for 24 percent of the additional investment.
If the data consumption level is lowered to 10-20 GB/Month per user, the total cost decreases by up to about half.
Raising data consumption to 80-100 GB/Month per user leads to a cost increase of roughly 90 percent relative to the baseline.
Varying the peak hour quality of service level from the baseline 95 percent reliability to only 50 percent reliability results in a 40 percent cost decrease.

Global total mobilization required: $418 billion.
Target data consumption in baseline: 40-50 GB/Month per user.
Baseline quality of service (peak hour reliability): 95 percent.
Share of investment by country group:
- Emerging market economies: 73 percent.
- Low-income developing countries: 24 percent.

Data consumption scenarios:
- Lower consumption scenario: 10-20 GB/Month per user → total cost decreases by up to about half.
- Higher consumption scenario: 80-100 GB/Month per user → cost increases by roughly 90 percent relative to the baseline.
Quality-of-service scenario:
- Reducing peak hour reliability from 95 percent to 50 percent → 40 percent cost decrease.

Broadband policy assessments should be explicit about:
- The quantity of data provided to users (GB/Month per user).
- The reliability of service provided to users (peak hour quality/reliability).
Failure to specify data quantity and reliability will lead to inaccurate estimates and, ultimately, to poor broadband policy decisions.