Far More Than a Shot in the Arm: Vaccines and Consumer Spending

IMF Working Papers, April 21, 2023

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Canonical URL: Far More Than a Shot in the Arm: Vaccines and Consumer Spending

Study investigates how the COVID-19 vaccine rollout affected consumer spending at daily frequency using debit and credit card transactions in three European countries.
Research context: the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and government interventions reshaped economic activity and household consumption behavior.

Data: daily-frequency debit and credit card transactions.
Geography: three European countries (listed in keywords as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania).
Focus: interaction of vaccination deployment and other policy responses with private consumption and the composition of card transactions.

Vaccination deployment has a statistically and economically significant positive effect on private consumption.
Other policy responses to the pandemic—designed to contain the spread of the virus and provide support to businesses and households—have significant effects on both the amount and the composition of debit and credit card transactions.
The stimulative impact of COVID-19 vaccinations on consumer spending is more pronounced in contact-intensive sectors such as services than in goods.

Subjects: Health, Money, National accounts
Keywords: Baltics, card transactions, Consumer credit, consumer spending, COVID-19, credit card transactions, Estonia, government intervention, household behavior, Household consumption, Latvia, Lithuania, Pandemic, vaccination, vaccination deployment, vaccination effort, vaccine rollout