Corruption Kills: Global Evidence from Natural Disasters

IMF Working Papers, October 27, 2023

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Natural disasters are inevitable, but humanitarian and economic losses are determined largely by policy preferences and institutional underpinnings that shape the quality of public infrastructure (including emergency responses and healthcare services) and govern business practices and the adherence to building codes.
The paper empirically investigates whether corruption increases the loss of human lives caused by natural disasters using a large panel of 135 countries during the period 1980–2020.
The econometric analysis provides convincing evidence that corruption increases the number of disaster-related deaths, after controlling for economic, demographic, healthcare and institutional factors.
The higher the level of corruption in a given country, the greater the number of fatalities as a share of population due to natural disasters.
The devastating impact of corruption on loss of human lives caused by natural disasters is significantly greater in developing countries, which are even more vulnerable to nonlinear effects of corruption.

Sample: 135 countries.
Period covered: 1980–2020.
Controls included: economic, demographic, healthcare and institutional factors.
Approach: econometric analysis to estimate the relationship between corruption and disaster-related fatalities (fatalities measured as a share of population).

Strengthening institutions and reducing corruption can lower disaster-related fatalities by improving the quality of public infrastructure, emergency response, healthcare services, adherence to building codes, and business practices.
Developing countries face amplified risks: corruption’s nonlinear effects make them especially vulnerable, implying targeted anti-corruption and resilience-building measures are critical in these contexts.

IMF Working Paper: "Corruption Kills: Global Evidence from Natural Disasters", Serhan Cevik and João Tovar Jalles, October 27, 2023.