Demystifying Trade Patterns In A Fragmenting World

IMF Working Papers, June 27, 2025

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Draws a distinction between:
- Trade reallocation — countries increase domestic production to substitute for declining Chinese exports to the US.
- Trade rerouting — countries serve as one-stop place for transshipment of Chinese exports to the US.
Asks whether rising shares in US imports for so-called “connector” countries reflect trade reallocation, trade rerouting, or other factors (for example, growing domestic markets and Chinese supply chain reconfiguration).

Leverages granular data on trade and FDI flows and global input-output linkages.
Focuses on six Asian countries.
Zooms in on value-added components of trade.
Deploys a synthetic control approach to disentangle trade reallocation from trade rerouting.

The connector role of the six countries may reflect:
- Growing domestic markets, and
- Chinese supply chain reconfiguration,
- Beyond simple trade rerouting from China to the US.
Evidence across the six countries:
- For five of the six countries, evidence remains elusive on whether increases are due to trade reallocation versus rerouting.
- Vietnam appears to have benefited from trade reallocation:
- Increased domestic content in its exports to the US in strategic sectors, rather than facilitating significant transshipment of Chinese exports to the US.
- Domestic production expansion also helped increase domestic content in Vietnam’s exports to the rest of the world.
- This expansion may be partly due to Chinese firms relocating to Vietnam through greenfield FDI.
Longer-run implication:
- Despite potential short-term gains from trade reallocation, it increases connector countries’ vulnerability to geoeconomic fragmentation with losses to all countries in the long run.

Distinguish policy responses aimed at:
- Supporting genuine domestic production expansion (trade reallocation) versus
- Addressing transshipment and routing behaviors (trade rerouting).
Monitor FDI patterns (including greenfield FDI) as a mechanism for production relocation and increased domestic content.
Consider vulnerabilities from geoeconomic fragmentation:
- Short-term gains in connector countries may come with increased long-run vulnerabilities and potential losses across countries.