Navigating the 2022 Inflation Surge: A Comparative Analysis of IT and Non-IT Central Banks
IMF Working Papers, October 24, 2025
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- Navigating the 2022 Inflation Surge: A Comparative Analysis of IT and Non-IT Central Banks
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Patrick A. Imam, Tigran Poghosyan
- Published: October 24, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229027922.001
Overview and scope
- Authors: Patrick A. Imam, Tigran Poghosyan
- Publication date: October 24, 2025
- Series: Working Paper No. 2025/212
- Volume: 2025; Issue: 212; Pages: 43
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229027922.001
- ISBN: 9798229027922; ISSN: 1018-5941
- Core focus: Effectiveness of inflation targeting (IT) frameworks during the global inflation surge of 2022 driven by large adverse supply side disruptions following the onset of the War in Ukraine.
Key empirical findings
- (de jure) IT frameworks did not systematically deliver better inflation outcomes during the 2022 inflation surge.
- The decline in inflation back towards historical norms was broadly comparable across (de jure) IT and non-IT country groups.
- (de jure) IT central banks hiked their policy rates by more than non-IT central banks on average, but this did not translate into better inflation outcomes.
- No evidence was found of a more flexible exchange rate after the shock in (de jure) IT central banks.
- Implication: (de jure) IT does not necessarily imply an advantage for monetary policy in the face of large, global supply shocks.
Analytical emphasis and limitations
- The shock analyzed is characterized as primarily supply-side, tied to large disruptions after the onset of the War in Ukraine.
- The analysis uses a de jure classification of IT regimes.
- The authors note a limitation: using a de facto classification of IT regimes would be preferable, but the absence of a comprehensive database makes this infeasible.
- Recommendation for further work: Additional analysis is warranted on how monetary policy frameworks can adapt to an environment characterized by more frequent and persistent supply-side disruptions.
Subjects and keywords (as identified in the paper)
- Subjects: Central bank policy rate, Economic theory, Financial services, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Prices, Real effective exchange rates, Supply shocks
- Keywords: Central Bank Credibility, Central bank policy rate, country group, CPI inflation in IT, effectiveness of inflation targeting, Global, Inflation, inflation expectation, inflation outcome, Inflation Targeting, IT country, Middle East, Real effective exchange rates, Supply Shocks
IMF Working Paper: "Navigating the 2022 Inflation Surge: A Comparative Analysis of IT and Non-IT Central Banks" by Patrick A. Imam and Tigran Poghosyan, Working Paper No. 2025/212 (October 24, 2025).
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