Climate Finance and Adaptation Needs In Pacific Island Countries
IMF Working Papers, April 24, 2026
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- Climate Finance and Adaptation Needs In Pacific Island Countries
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Fabien Gonguet, Xuehui Han, Choonsung Lim, To-Nhu Dao, Saraf Nawar
- Published: April 24, 2026
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229043175.001
Overview and authorship
- Title: Climate Finance and Adaptation Needs In Pacific Island Countries
- Authors: Fabien Gonguet, Xuehui Han, Choonsung Lim, To-Nhu Dao, Saraf Nawar
- Publication: IMF Working Papers
- Date: April 24, 2026
- Pages: 38
- Volume: 2026
- Issue: 083
- Series: Working Paper No. 2026/083
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229043175.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2026083
- ISBN: 9798229043175
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Research objective and scope
- Develop a unified framework to produce the first region-wide, internally consistent estimates of climate adaptation financing needs for Pacific Island Countries (PICs).
- Harmonize country-level assessments into comparable annual measures via a metadata analysis.
- Generate synthetic estimates for data-deficient countries using a complementary machine-learning approach with economic, geographic, and climate-vulnerability indicators.
- Account for differences in sectoral definitions and coverage embedded in the underlying source studies.
Key findings
- Adaptation needs are large and highly uneven across countries.
- Adaptation needs are exceptionally high relative to GDP, particularly for atoll nations where physical risks dominate.
- Current financing levels fall well short of projected adaptation needs.
- Disbursement ratios vary substantially across financing channels, reflecting differences in institutional capacity and project implementation.
- Taken together, the findings highlight substantial adaptation financing gaps in PICs and underscore the importance of strengthening institutional capacity and improving the effectiveness and accessibility of climate finance mechanisms.
Methodology
- Metadata analysis harmonizes country-level assessments into comparable annual measures.
- Complementary machine-learning approach generates synthetic estimates for data-deficient countries using economic, geographic, and climate-vulnerability indicators.
- Estimates are subject to differences in sectoral definitions and coverage embedded in the underlying source studies.
Analysis of climate adaptation finance flows
- Examines climate adaptation finance flows to PICs over the past decade.
- Distinguishes between commitments and estimated disbursements.
- Finds that disbursement ratios vary substantially across financing channels.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Strengthen institutional capacity in PICs to improve project implementation and increase disbursement effectiveness.
- Improve the effectiveness and accessibility of climate finance mechanisms to better meet projected adaptation needs.
- Address uneven distribution of needs, with particular attention to atoll nations facing exceptionally high adaptation burdens relative to GDP.
This summary is based on "Climate Finance and Adaptation Needs In Pacific Island Countries", IMF Working Papers 2026, 083 (2026) by Fabien Gonguet, Xuehui Han, Choonsung Lim, To-Nhu Dao, and Saraf Nawar.
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