Nowcasting Country-Level Trade Estimates Using IMF PortWatch
IMF Working Papers, May 22, 2026
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- Nowcasting Country-Level Trade Estimates Using IMF PortWatch
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Serkan Arslanalp, Oliver Exton, Chang Gao, Mario Saraiva, Parisa Kamali, Alessandra Sozzi, Jasper Verschuur
- Published: May 22, 2026
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229046893.001
Methodology
- Develops high frequency trade estimates at the country level by applying nowcasting methodologies to satellite-based big data on vessel movements sourced from IMF PortWatch.
- Produces a timely estimate of monthly trade at the country level that can be produced and released within 7 working days.
- Identifies complementary information to improve the presented nowcasting methodology for developing country trade estimates.
Validation and performance
- Validates the nowcasting trade estimates against official data for an initial wave of countries:
- Brazil
- Jamaica
- Japan
- Samoa
- United States
- Performance notes:
- The nowcasting methodology produces trade estimates that perform well compared to the official statistics.
- Best fit observed for advanced economies and large emerging markets.
Application examples
- Considers an application to estimates of U.S. imports during a period of elevated trade tensions.
Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Deflation, Export fluctuations, Exports, Imports, International trade, Prices
- Keywords: big data, c. Port-level, Deflation, Export fluctuations, Exports, Global, Imports, maritime trade, Nowcasting, port boundary, Port review, PortWatch estimate, trade estimate, trade tension
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- Working Paper